South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Dean Baker does some math on the economic situation facing the United States.

Okay, let’s assume that the growth rate remains ate 3.0 percent, which is somewhat higher than most forecasts. Currently the economy is operating at about 6 percent below its potential. Potential growth is around 2.5 percent annually according to the Congressional Budget Office. This means that we will make up our shortfall at the rate of 0.5 percentage points annually. That puts 2024 as the year when we again reach potential GDP.
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Taking the jobs side of the picture, the economy is currently down by around 10 million jobs from where it would be had we continued on our pre-recession job growth trend. We have to create roughly 100,000 jobs a month to keep pace with the growth of the labor force. This means that if we create 200,000 jobs a month, then we are cutting into this shortfall at the rate of 100,000 jobs a month. That gets back to full employment in 100 months or 8 and a half years.
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Hey, who can call this a depression?