South By North Strategies, Ltd.

CHAPEL HILL (March 20, 2012) – Between January 2011 and January 2012, unemployment rates rose in 58 of North Carolina’s 100 counties and in 7 of the state’s 14 metropolitan areas. These findings come from new estimates from the North Carolina Department of Commerce Labor and Economic Analysis Division.

“North Carolina’s local labor markets did not start 2012 on a good footing,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “In 80 counties, at least 10 percent of the labor force was unemployed in January, up from 77 counties a year ago. Similarly, the size of the labor force fell in 17 counties, which suggests that unemployment is more widespread than captured in official measures.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the economy fell into recession, North Carolina has 5.5 percent fewer jobs (-227,500) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb from 4.7 percent to 10.5 percent. In January, the state gained 17,000 more payroll jobs than it lost. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 4,300 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 99,800 positions (+2.6 percent).

Between December and January, unemployment rates rose in 95 counties and were at or above 10 percent in 80 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 6.4 percent in Orange County to 20.6 percent in Graham County. Compared to a year ago, unemployment rates were higher in 58 counties, unchanged in 7 counties, and lower in 35 counties.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets started 2012 on a weak note,” added Quinterno. “In January, 12 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 9.9 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force is 1.7 percent smaller in size and 8.4 percent fewer individuals are employed. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed rural persons has grown by 112.5 percent and now numbers 157,818.”

Last month, unemployment rates rose in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (13.9 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (12.3 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest rate (8 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (8.4 percent) and Asheville (8.6 percent).

Compared to January 2011, unemployment rates were higher in 58 counties and 7 metros. While 17 counties experienced a decline in the size of the local labor force, every metro recorded gains. Asheville’s labor force expanded at the fastest rate (+7.5 percent), followed by Burlington and Fayetteville (tied at +6.8 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (+6.3 percent). Metro areas now are home to 71.7 percent of the state’s entire labor force with slightly more than half of the labor force found in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, any meaningful recovery will hinge on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth remains weak. Collectively, employment in these three metro regions has fallen by 0.1 percent since December 2007, and the combined January unemployment rate in the three regions equaled 9.5 percent. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (8.5 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (10.4 percent), and Charlotte (10.7 percent).

“North Carolina’s local labor markets did not start 2012 too differently than they started 2011,” said Quinterno. “Despite some recent positive data revisions, the pace of job growth in the state remains weak relative to the severity of the recession. As a result, nearly a half million North Carolinians are currently unemployed with no community in the state left untouched by the pernicious effects of mass unemployment.”