South By North Strategies, Ltd.

The April employment report released today by the Employment Security Commission points to a state labor market in fragile condition. Job growth is insufficient to accommodate all those who wish to work; unemployment remains elevated; and uncertainty clouds future prospects.

Last month, North Carolina employers added 7,500 more positions than they eliminated. The public sector generated 80 percent of those jobs with federal hiring – mainly for temporary census positions – accounting for 51.6 percent of net public-sector payroll growth. Since December 2007, North Carolina has lost, on net, 270,000 positions or 6.5 percent of its payroll employment base.

Stabilizing labor market conditions are reflected in April’s household data. Last month, the labor force expanded by 0.1 percent as 6,220 additional people sought work. The number of employed individuals rose, and the number of unemployed individuals declined. The unemployment rate therefore dipped from 11.1 percent to 10.8 percent. Nevertheless, since the start of the recession, the number of unemployed Tar Heels has grown by 131.3 percent, and the unemployment rate has jumped from 4.7 percent to 10.8 percent.

The next few months could be quite difficult for North Carolinians seeking work. Job growth is weak, and much of the recent growth has resulted from such government actions as temporary census hiring, housing tax credits, emergency unemployment insurance payments, and recovery act funding. Many of these supports are phasing out, and it is unclear if enough private-sector demand exists to take their place.

Click here to read South by North Strategies’ full analysis of the April report.