South By North Strategies, Ltd.

For the benefit week ending on October 29, 2011,  some 12,637 North Carolinians filed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits, and 105,718 individuals applied for state-funded continuing benefits. Compared to the prior week, there were more initial and continuing claims. These figures come from data released by the U.S. Department of Labor.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 12,394 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 105,294 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower and the number of continuing claims was higher.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 13,655  and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 115,962.

In recent weeks covered employment has increased slightly and has returned to the 3.73 million level recorded a year ago. Nevertheless,  there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were almost three years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims (as a share of covered employment) in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.