South By North Strategies, Ltd.

No Surprises In April Jobs Report For NC

CHAPEL HILL, NC (May 16, 2014) – In April, employers in North Carolina added 15,300 more payroll positions than they cut (+0.4 percent), due entirely to growth in the private sector. The monthly household survey, meanwhile, recorded a drop in unemployment, with the statewide unemployment rate falling to 6.2 percent, which was the lowest monthly rate logged since the middle of 2008. Nevertheless, North Carolina still has fewer payroll jobs, more unemployed residents, and a higher unemployment rate than it did some 6.25 years ago.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The April employment report is another entry in the series of mixed reports recorded over the last few months,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “In April, North Carolina experienced a rmodest gain in the total number of payroll jobs in the state for the second month in a row. Yet compared to year earlier, a smaller share of the state’s working-age population was participating in the labor force.”

Between March 2014 and April 2014, North Carolina employers added 15,300 more jobs than they cut (+0.4 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 16,800 positions (+0.5 percent), but public-sector payrolls shed, on net, 1,500 jobs (-0.2 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+7,600, with 86.8 percent of the increase originating in the administrative and waste management subsector), followed by the leisure and hospitality sector (+5,600 jobs, with all of the increase originating in the accommodation and food service subsector) and the trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities sector (+2,200, with almost all of the gain originating in the retail trade subsector). Meanwhile, the construction sector shed the most payroll jobs (-2,500), followed by the education and health services sector (-1,400).

A revision to the March 2014 payroll data found that the state gained 1,700 fewer jobs that month than first estimated (+17,700 versus +19,400). With the revision, North Carolina has, on net, 54,100 fewer payroll positions (-1.3 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,494 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 274,700 positions (+7.2 percent). At that rate, holding all else equal, it would take until February 2015 for the state to have as many jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

“While positive, the pace of payroll growth in North Carolina has not quickened over the past year,” explained Quinterno. “Between April 2013 and April 2014, the total number of payroll jobs in North Carolina grew by 1.4 percent, a rate similar to those seen in prior years. Between April 2012 and April 2013, the total of number payroll jobs in North Carolina rose by 1.7 percent, while between April 2011 and April 2012, the rate of growth also was 1.7 percent. From April 2010 to April 2011, the rate of growth was 1.4 percent. No matter how one cuts the data, North Carolina has experienced the same basic slow rate of job growth for the last four years.”

The household data recorded in April contained some positive news about the state’s labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 6.2 percent, which was the lowest monthly rate logged since mid-2008. Additionally, 14,104 more North Carolinians had jobs in April (+0.3 percent) than in March, and 4,193 fewer persons were unemployed (-1.4 percent). And over the month, the size of the state’s labor force essentially held steady at 4.7 million.

While the changes in household data recorded between March and April seemed positive, the data for changes over the past year were less so. Between April 2013 and April 2014, the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell by 102,377 (-26 percent) persons, but 32.2 percent of the decline was attributable to people who left the labor force entirely. If those 33,005 persons were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate in April would have equaled 6.9 percent. Even if 50 percent of those individuals were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate would have equaled 6.6 percent.

Year-over-year declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market that is not growing rapidly enough to accommodate all those who want and need work. In April 2014, the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market equaled 61.1 percent, down from 62.2 percent in April 2013. Even though the labor force participation rose in April for the first time since late 2011, it remains close to the lowest monthly figure recorded at any point since January 1976.

Although another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, rose over the year, the current share of working-age North Carolinians with a job (57.3 percent) was just 1 percentage point above the 38-year low of 56.3 percent posted in the summer of 2011.

The April labor market report provided additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented over the summer. Between March and April, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 14.8 percent, dropping to 44,892 from 52,666. Compared to a year earlier, 52,750 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in April (-53.8 percent).

Also in April, the state paid a (nominal) total of $38.5 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 61.2 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $99.2 million paid in April 2013.

“Despite recent declines in the statewide unemployment rate, labor market conditions in North Carolina remain far from healthy. Look beyond the important yet limited measure of the unemployment rate, and one will see labor market dynamics broadly consistent with the sluggish ones that have characterized the past four years. Some four years into a recovery, North Carolina still has fewer jobs and more unemployment than it did before the recession.”

US Labor Market Takes A Wild Ride In April

CHAPEL HILL, NC (May 2, 2014) – In April, the national labor market added 288,000 more jobs than it lost (+2.1 percent) due mainly to gains in the private sector. This net gain was the largest one logged in any month since January 2012 and was the third-largest monthly gain recorded since October 2010. Yet the household data painted a more negative picture of the labor market, with the number of employed persons actually declining in April.

“April was the 43rd-straight month in which the United States experienced net job growth,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the year, the economy has netted an average of 197,000 jobs per month, but it still remains 7.1 million jobs short of the total needed to replace the jobs lost since 2007 and to meet subsequent population growth.”

In April, the nation’s employers added 288,000 more payroll jobs than they cut (+2.1 percent). Some 95 percent of the gain came from the private sector (+273,000), while public employers added 15,000 more positions than they cut. Within the private sector, payroll levels rose the most in the professional business services sector (+75,000, with 51.5 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste services subsector), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+59,000, with 58.5 percent of the gain occurring in the retail trade subsector) and the education and health services sector (+40,000, with 69.8 percent of the gain occurring in the health care and the social assistance subsector). Payroll levels in the other major industry groups rose or held steady.

Additionally, the payroll employment numbers for February and March underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy netted 425,000 jobs over those two months, not the 389,000 positions previously reported. With those changes, the average pace of monthly job growth in the United States recorded over the past year rose to 197,000 from 194,000.

“While the United States has experienced steady job growth for the past 3.5 years, the pace of growth has been modest relative to the severity of the job losses caused by the last recession,” noted Quinterno. “The current average monthly rate of job growth is insufficient to close the nation’s jobs gap anytime soon.”

Data from the household survey, meanwhile, offered a more negative picture of the state of the United States’ labor market. In April, the number of Americans who reported having jobs actually decreased by 73,000 persons (-0.1 percent); put differently, fewer people reported having jobs in April than in March. And the overall size of the labor force declined by 806,000 persons between March and April. Compared to March, fewer Americans participated in the labor force in April, and the share of working-age people with a job was unchanged.

In April, 9.8 million Americans were unemployed (6.3 percent), while 7.5 million individuals worked part time despite preferring full-time positions. Another 783,000 individuals (not seasonally adjusted) were so discouraged about their job prospects that they had stopped searching for work altogether. Those persons were part of a larger population of 2.2 million Americans who were marginally attached to the labor force.

Compared to a year ago, 2 million more Americans were working in April, and 1.9 million fewer persons were unemployed. At the same time, the share of the working-age population with a job (58.9 percent) remained at a depressed level, while the share of the population that was participating in the labor force actually decreased over the year, falling to 62.8 percent from 63.4 percent.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher among adult male workers than female ones (5.9 percent versus 5.7 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (11.6 percent) and Hispanic workers (7.3 percent) than among white ones (5.3 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 19.1 percent.

Additionally, 5.6 percent of all veterans were unemployed in April, and the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 6.8 percent. At the same time, 12.5 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained comparatively hard to find in April. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 12.3 percent, down from the 13.9 percent rate logged a year ago. Among unemployed workers, 35.3 percent had been jobless for at least six months (compared to 37.4 percent a year earlier), and the average spell of unemployment equaled 35.1 weeks, down from 36.6 weeks in April 2013.

In April, the leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 54.1 percent of unemployed persons. Another 27.1 percent of unemployed persons were re-entrants to the labor market, while 10.8 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 8.1 percent of the total.

“The April employment report painted a mixed portrait of the American labor market,” observed Quinterno. “The payroll survey contained positive findings, but the data in the household survey were much more negative. While the economy is netting jobs at a somewhat more robust pace than first thought, it is not adding enough jobs, rapidly enough to provide employment opportunities to all those who want and need work. Even with the recent drops in the unemployment rate, the United States’ jobs crisis remains far from over.”

Local Unemployment Rates Fluctuate In March

CHAPEL HILL, NC (April 29, 2014) – Between March 2013 and March 2014, unemployment rates fell in all 100 of North Carolina’s counties and in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Over the same period, however, the number of people who reported having jobs actually decreased in 30 counties and 2 metro areas. That suggests that drops in unemployment were intertwined with the exiting of people from the labor force; in fact, the size of the labor force decreased in in 71 counties and in 8 metro areas over the year.

These findings come from new estimates released by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Local unemployment rates fell across all of North Carolina over the past year, with the unadjusted statewide rate falling by 1.8 percentage points,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Many counties and metros now are experiencing some of the lowest unemployment rates recorded since the onset of the ‘Great Recession’ in December 2007.”

“One must not forget the fact that local unemployment rates across North Carolina remain elevated,” added Quinterno. “In March, 96 counties and 14 metro areas posted unemployment rates greater than those logged six years ago.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 1.6 percent fewer payroll jobs (-67,700). In March, the state added 19,400 more jobs than it lost (+0.5 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 5,329 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 261,100 positions (+6.8 percent). At that rate, all else equal, it would take until April 2015 for the state to have as many payroll jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

Between February 2014 and March 2014, local unemployment rates decreased in 59 of the state’s 100 counties, rose in 23 counties, and held constant in 18 counties. Individual county rates in March ranged from 4.6 percent in Chatham County to 12.7 percent in Graham County. Overall, 6 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 58 counties posted rates between 6.7 and 9.9 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to struggle relative to metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In March, 7.5 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 6.2 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 5.4 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 30.1 percent larger. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 3.4 percent.”

Between February and March, unemployment rates fell in 5 of the state’s metro areas, rose in 3 metro areas, and held steady in 6 metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (9.4 percent), followed by Fayetteville (7.5 percent) and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (7 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest unemployment rate (5.1 percent), followed by Asheville and Raleigh-Cary (both 5.2 percent).

Compared to March 2013, unemployment rates in March 2014 were lower in all 100 counties and all 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 71 counties and in 8 metros. In fact, the statewide labor force (seasonally adjusted) was 1 percent smaller (-49,426 individuals) in March 2014 than it was in March 2013.

Among metros, Rocky Mount’s labor force contracted at the greatest rate (-2.8 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Greensboro-High Point (-1.8 percent) and Jacksonville and Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (both -1.7 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 72.2 percent of the state’s labor force, with 51 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions depend on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros remains subdued. Collectively, employment in the three metro regions has risen by 5.7 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in March totaled 6 percent. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest December unemployment rate (5.3 percent), followed by Charlotte (6.4 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (6.6 percent).

The local employment report for March also provided insights into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented over the summer. Last month, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 21,557, down from the 44,155 initial claims filed a year earlier (-51.2 percent).

Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,595), followed by Wake (1,664), Guilford (1,099), Forsyth (777), and Cumberland (765) counties.

In March 2014, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $51.4 million in regular state-funded and federal unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $209.7 million received in March 2013. This sharp decline (-75.5 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes to eligibility criteria.

Additionally, the state’s decision to exit the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC) program reduced the amount of federal unemployment insurance compensation flowing into the state in December. Between March 2013 and March 2014, the amount of federal unemployment insurance benefits paid to North Carolinians fell by 98.1 percent, dropping to a (nominal) total of $2 million from a (nominal) total of $104.2 million.

“Even with the recent declines in local unemployment rates, labor market conditions in communities across North Carolina still remain far away from their pre-recessionary states,” said Quinterno. “The March data showed little deviation from the fundamental problem that has troubled the state for the last four years: a sluggish recovery that is not generating enough employment opportunities, rapidly enough for all those who want and need them.”

NC Labor Market Delivers More Of The Same

CHAPEL HILL, NC (April 21, 2014) – In March, employers in North Carolina added 19,400 more payroll positions than they cut (+0.5 percent), due entirely to growth in the private sector. The monthly household survey, meanwhile, recorded a drop in unemployment, with the statewide unemployment rate falling to 6.3 percent. Nevertheless, North Carolina still has fewer payroll jobs, more unemployed residents, and a higher unemployment rate than it did 6.25 years ago.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The March employment report is another mixed report similar to those of the last several months,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “In March, North Carolina experienced a relatively modest change in the total number of payroll jobs in the state. At the same time, both the number of unemployed persons and the unemployment rate fell.”

Between February 2014 and March 2014, North Carolina employers added 19,400 more jobs than they cut (+0.5 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 19,900 positions (+0.6 percent), but public-sector payrolls shed, on net, 500 jobs (-0.3 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+7,600, + 1.4 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+5,500 jobs, +0.7 percent) and the education and health services sector (+3,500, +0.6 percent). Last month, payroll levels in almost every major private-sector industry group either increased or held constant.

A revision to the February 2014 payroll data found that the state lost 3,950 more jobs that month than first estimated (-11,300 versus -7,349). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 67,700 fewer payroll positions (-1.6 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,329 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 261,100 positions (+6.8 percent). At that rate, holding all else equal, it would take until April 2015 for the state to have as many jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

“While positive, the pace of payroll growth in North Carolina has not quickened over the past year,” explained Quinterno. “Between March 2013 and March 2014, the total number of payroll jobs in North Carolina grew by 1.6 percent, a rate similar to those seen in prior years. Between March 2012 and March 2013, the total of number payroll jobs in North Carolina also rose by 1.6 percent, while between March 2011 and March 2012, the rate of growth was 1.7 percent. From March 2010 to March 2011, the rate of growth was 1.5 percent. No matter how one cuts the data, North Carolina has experienced the same slow rate of job growth for the last four years.”

The household data recorded in March offered a somewhat positive view of the state’s labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points to 6.3 percent, which was the lowest monthly rate recorded since the middle of 2008. Additionally, 10,277 more North Carolinians had jobs in March (+0.2 percent) than in February, and 2,412 fewer persons were unemployed (-0.1 percent). And over the month, the size of the state’s labor force essentially held steady at 4.7 million.

While the changes in household data recorded between February and March seemed positive, the data for changes over the past year were less so. Between March 2013 and March 2014, the number of unemployed North Carolina’s fell by 105,637 persons, but 46.8 percent of the decline was attributable to people who left the labor force entirely. If those 49,426 persons were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate in March would have equaled 7.3 percent. Even if 50 percent of those individuals were added back to the labor force and considered unemployed, the statewide unemployment rate would have equaled 6.8 percent.

Declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market that is not growing rapidly enough to accommodate all those who want and need work. In March, the labor force participation rate held steady at the revised February 2014 figure of 61 percent, which is the lowest monthly figure recorded at any point since 1976. Moreover, the labor force participation rate has fallen steadily since December 2012, when the rate equaled 62.7 percent.

Although another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, has ticked up since December 2013, the March 2014 ratio of 57.1 percent was identical to the one logged in March 2013 and just 0.8 percentage points above the 38-year low of 56.3 percent posted in the summer of 2011.

The March labor market report provided additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented over the summer. Between February and March, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 6.8 percent, dropping to 52,666 from 56,514. Compared to a year earlier, 50,372 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in March (-48.9 percent).

Also in March, the state paid a (nominal) total of $49.4 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 53.1 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $105.5 million paid in March 2013.

“Despite recent declines in the statewide unemployment rate, labor market conditions in North Carolina remain underwhelming. Look beyond the important yet limited measure of the unemployment rate, and one will see labor market dynamics essentially no different from the sluggish ones that have characterized the past four years.”

Mixed Messages In First Jobs Report Of 2014

CHAPEL HILL, NC (March 17, 2014) – In January, employers in North Carolina eliminated 7,200 more payroll positions than they added (-0.2 percent), due almost equally to job losses in the private and public sectors (-3,700 and -3,500, respectively) The monthly household survey, however, recorded a drop in unemployment, with the statewide unemployment rate falling to 6.7 percent, which was the lowest monthly figure logged since August 2008.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“The January employment report offers mixed messages about the health of North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “On the one hand, more people reported being employed in January compared to December. On the other hand, the number of payroll jobs in the state declined slightly, with losses occurring throughout the public and private sectors.”

Between December 2013 and January 2014, North Carolina employers shed 7,200 more jobs than they added (-0.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls lost, on net, 3,700 positions (-0.1 percent), and public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 3,500 jobs (-0.5 percent). Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector shed the most jobs (-5,600 jobs, or -1.3 percent, with all of the decline occurring in the accommodation and food service subsector), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (-5,300 jobs, or -0.7 percent, with all of the losses occurring in the retail trade subsector) and the professional and business services sector (-3,200 jobs, or -0.6 percent, with almost all of the decline occurring in the administrative and waste management subsector). With the seemingly anomalous exception of the construction sector, most other major industry groups recorded few changes in payroll levels between December and January.

A revision to the December payroll data found that the state gained 3,400 fewer jobs that month than first estimated (+7,700 versus +11,100). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 71,000 fewer payroll positions (-1.7 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 5,485 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 257,800 positions (+6.7 percent). At that rate, holding all else equal, it would take until early 2015 for the state to have as many jobs as it did at the end of 2007.

“Revisions to the 2013 data reveal that North Carolina netted 21,100 more jobs over the course of the year than first reported,” noted Quinterno. “While positive growth always is welcome, the average monthly rate of job growth recorded in 2013—a rate of 0.2 percent—was identical to the average monthly rate of job growth logged in 2012. No matter how one parses the data, North Carolina has been experiencing extremely slow job growth for close to four years.”

The household data recorded in January offered a more positive view of the state’s labor market. Last month, the statewide unemployment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 6.7 percent, which was the lowest monthly rate recorded since August 2008, when the rate was 6.6 percent. Additionally, 17,407 more North Carolinians had jobs in January (+0.4 percent) than was in December, and 11,354 fewer persons were unemployed (-3.5 percent). And over the month, the size of the state’s labor force essentially held steady at 4.7 million.

While the household data for the month of January generally were positive, the data for the past year were less so, even after accounting for annual data revisions. The state’s unemployment rate fell by 2.1 percentage points over the course of 2013, but a sizable portion of the decline was attributable to a contraction in the size of the state’s labor force. Between January 2013 and January 2014, the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell by 105,656 persons (-25.3 percent). Approximately 57.1 percent of that decline resulted from a drop in the size of the labor force (-60,373 persons, -1.3 percent), while 42.9 percent resulted from an increase in employment (+45,283, +1.1 percent).

Declines in the statewide labor force participation rate provide additional evidence of a labor market that is under-performing. In January, the labor force participation rate held steady at the revised December 2013 figure of 61.1 percent. That rate was the lowest monthly figure recorded at any point since 1976. Moreover, the labor force participation rate fell steadily over the last year. Between January 2013 and January 2014, this important measure of labor utilization fell by 1.5 percentage points, dropping to 61.1 percent from 62.6 percent.

Although another important measure of labor utilization, the employment-to-population ratio, increased slightly between December and January, the current ratio of 57 percent is 0.1 percentage points lower than the corresponding figure logged in January 2013 and just 0.7 percentage points above the 38-year low of 56.3 percent posted in the summer of 2011.

January’s labor market report provided additional insight into the effects of the extensive changes to the state’s system of unemployment insurance implemented over the summer. Between December and January, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 1.7 percent, dropping to 59,878 from 60,889. Compared to a year earlier, 67,396 fewer individuals received regular state-funded insurance in January (-53 percent).

Also in January, the state paid a (nominal) total of $49.1 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 58.3 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $117.7 million paid in January 2013.

“North Carolina’s labor market started 2014 the same way it ended 2013: mired in a painfully slow recovery that simply is not generating enough jobs, fast enough to accommodate all those who want and need work,” cautioned Quinterno. “In many ways, the state’s labor market began 2014 stuck in the same low gear where it has been for most of the past four years.”