South By North Strategies, Ltd.

North Carolina’s Labor Market Recovery Continues

CHAPEL HILL, NC (August 17, 2018) – In July, employers in North Carolina collectively added 10,400 more payroll jobs than they cut (+0.2 percent), with gains occurring in both the private and public sectors. The monthly household survey, meanwhile, recorded decreases in the number of unemployed North Carolinians and in the statewide unemployment rate, which fell to 4.1 percent, a rate last posted in late 2000.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“So far, 2018 is shaping up to be the best year for payroll job growth in North Carolina since the start of the recovery,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “North Carolina’s top-level labor market indicators point to an economy that is creating jobs and reducing unemployment. Viewed in isolation, these indicators paint a picture of a labor market that is performing better than at any time in almost 20 years.”

Between December 2017 and July 2018, North Carolina employers added 79,700 more payroll jobs than they cut (+1.8 percent), with private-sector hiring accounting for 88 percent of the net gain. Within private industry, the broad trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities sector netted the most jobs (+14,900, +1.8 percent), followed by the professional and business services sector (+11,300, +1.8 percent) and the educational and health services sector (+11,100, +1.8 percent). No major industrial sector experienced a net decrease in payroll totals.

“In 2018, the construction and manufacturing sectors both have netted more jobs than they have lost, with each sector netting more than 8,000 jobs,” noted Quinterno. “Despite those gains, the construction industry still has 13 percent fewer payroll positions than it did at the end of 2007, while the manufacturing sector has 11 percent fewer positions.”

Since North Carolina’s economic recovery began in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,800 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of some 690,000 positions (+18 percent) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.5 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. With that gain, North Carolina has 364,200 more jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+8.7 percent).

So far in 2018, the household survey also has offered a positive view of the state’s labor market. Since December, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1 percent from 4.5 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 203,407. For context, the rate in February 2010 was 11.4 percent, with the number of unemployed persons totaling 525,559.

Also in 2018, the number of employed persons has risen by 1.2 percent, climbing to 4.8 million from 4.7 million. And the size of the labor force has increased by 0.6 percent and now exceeds 5 million people. Compared to when the recovery began in February 2010, some 398,000 more people (+8.6 percent) now are employed or actively seeking work.

“The 4.1 percent unemployment rate recorded in July was the lowest monthly rate logged in North Carolina since November 2000,” observed Quinterno. “Despite similar rates of unemployment, today’s labor market arguably is not as strong as the one that existed in 2000, largely because there is scant evidence of the meaningful gains in earnings that characterized the earlier period. In short, today’s growth generally is not improving living standards.”

Consider private-sector earnings. After adjusting for inflation, the average private-sector wage in North Carolina in July 2018 was $24.79 per hour versus $23.65 in July 2010, a real difference of $1.14 per hour. That translates into an annualized rate of growth 0.6 percent. When compared to July 2007, shortly before the “Great Recession,” the average private-sector wage in North Carolina, adjusting for inflation, is just $1.69 per hour higher than it was 11 years ago.

A similar pattern applies to average weekly earnings in the private-sector, which totaled $868 in July 2018, after adjusting for inflation, versus $807 in July 2010 and $813 in July 2007. One factor contributing to the recent increase in weekly earnings versus 2010 has been an increase in the number of hours worked each week.

“North Carolina’s unemployment rate fell in July to the lowest one recorded in 18 years, while job growth has improved compared to earlier in the recovery,” explained Quinterno. “The improvements still are not translating into the kinds of growth valued by workers: growth in earnings, incomes, and standards of living.”

Growing, Just Not In All The Right Ways

CHAPEL HILL, NC (July 20, 2018) – During the first half of 2018, employers in North Carolina collectively added 69,100 more payroll jobs than they cut (+1.6 percent), due almost entirely to net hiring in the private sector. The monthly household survey, meanwhile, recorded decreases in the number of unemployed North Carolinians and in the statewide unemployment rate, which fell in June to 4.2 percent, a rate last posted in late 2000.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The first half of 2018 has been the best one for job growth in North Carolina since the start of the recovery,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “As has been the case for some time, the top-level labor market indicators for North Carolina point to an economy that is adding jobs and reducing unemployment. Taken in isolation, those indicators suggest that North Carolina’s labor market is performing better than it has at any point in almost 20 years.”

Between December 2017 and June 2018, North Carolina employers added 69,100 more payroll jobs than they cut (+1.6 percent), with private-sector hiring accounting for 95 percent of the net gain. Within private industry, the broad trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities sector netted the most jobs (+13,500, +1.6 percent), followed by the educational and health services sector (+10,000, +1.7 percent) and the leisure and hospitality services sector (+8,100, +1.6 percent). No major industrial sector experienced a net decrease in payroll totals.

“During the first half of 2018, both the construction and manufacturing sectors netted more jobs than they lost, with each sector adding over 7,000 more jobs that it shed,” noted Quinterno. “Despite recent gains, the construction industry still has 14.5 percent fewer payroll positions than it did at the end of 2007, while the manufacturing sector has 10.8 percent fewer positions.”

Since North Carolina’s economic recovery began in February 2010, the state has netted an average of some 6,800 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of almost 680,000 positions (+18 percent) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.5 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. With that gain, North Carolina has 353,600 more jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+8.5 percent).

So far in 2018, the household survey also has offered a positive view of the state’s labor market. Since December, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.2 percent from 4.5 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 209,552. For context, the rate in February 2010 was 11.4 percent, with the number of unemployed persons totaling 525,559.

Additionally in 2018, the number of employed persons has risen by 0.9 percent, climbing to 4.8 million from 4.7 million. And the size of the labor force has increased by 0.6 percent and now totals 5 million people. Compared to when the recovery began in February 2010, some 391,500 more people (+8.5 percent) now are employed or actively seeking work.

“The 4.2 percent unemployment rate recorded in June was the lowest monthly rate recorded in North Carolina since December 2000,” observed Quinterno. “Despite similar rates of unemployment, today’s labor market arguably is not as strong as the one that existed in 2000, largely because there is scant evidence of the meaningful gains in earnings that characterized the earlier period. In short, today’s growth is not necessarily improving living standards.”

Consider private-sector earnings. After adjusting for inflation, the average private-sector wage in North Carolina in June 2018 was $24.47 per hour versus $23.49 in June 2010, a difference of $0.98 per hour. That translates into an annualized rate of growth 0.5 percent. When compared to June 2007, shortly before the “Great Recession,” the average private-sector wage in North Carolina, adjusting for inflation, is just $1.48 per hour higher than it was 11 years ago.

A similar pattern applies to average weekly earnings in the private-sector, which totaled $856 in June 2018, after adjusting for inflation, versus $806 in June 2010 and $807 in June 2007. One factor contributing to the recent increase in weekly earnings versus 2010 has been an increase in the number of hours worked each week.

“So far in 2018, North Carolina’s unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest one recorded in 18 years, while job growth has improved compared to the same point in time during prior years in the recovery,” explained Quinterno. “The improvements, however, are not translating into the kind of growth valued by workers: growth in their earnings, incomes, and standard of living.”

Job Growth In North Carolina Slowed In Sept.

CHAPEL HILL, NC (October 20, 2017) – In September 2017, employers in North Carolina collectively added 2,500 more payroll jobs than they cut (+0.1 percent), due entirely to net hiring in the public sector. The monthly household survey, meanwhile, recorded no real change in the number of unemployed North Carolinians and in the statewide unemployment rate, which remained at 4.1 percent, the lowest figure posted since late 2000.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Job growth in North Carolina slowed in September, with the state netting just 2,500 payroll positions,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “2017 is well on its way to being the the worst year for statewide job growth since the start of the recovery from the ‘Great Recession.’ Over the first nine months of the year, North Carolina has netted a total of 39,800 payroll jobs, which is the smallest net gain posted during the first three-quarters of a year since 2011.”

Since North Carolina’s labor market recovery began in early 2010, the state has netted an average of 6,400 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 581,000 positions (+15.1%) since the worst point of the last recession. Today, the state has 4.4 million payroll jobs, up from 3.8 million in February 2010. Yet even with that gain, North Carolina has just 254,300 more payroll jobs than it did when the recession began in December 2007 (+6.1 percent).

“The labor market data released for September continue a yearlong pattern in which the payroll data paint a more negative view of North Carolina’s labor market than do the household data,” noted Quinterno. “Job growth slowed for the fourth month in a row, but the unemployment rate remained at a 17-year low. Squaring these confounding data is essential to understanding the landscape working North Carolinians are navigating.”

Judging by the household survey, North Carolina’s labor market appears to have improved during 2017. Since the start of the year, the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1 percent from 5.2 percent, with the number of unemployed persons declining to 200,905 from 256,852 (-21.8 percent). For context, the unemployment rate in February 2010 was 11.3 percent, with the number of unemployed individuals totaling 522,896.

“The low unemployment of 4.1% rate–a rate that has been logged in North Carolina for three months in a row–is the one piece of labor market data that has grabbed popular attention in recent months,” observed Quinterno. “The last time the state posted a 4.1 percent unemployment rate was in November 2000. Today, however, there is little evidence of the gains in wages, incomes, and living standards that characterized that earlier period—an expansionary one that would end the next year in a recession.”

Another difference between the two periods is how much more potential labor is sitting idle today. In late 2000, some 68 of every 100 working-age North Carolinians either had a job or were actively seeking one, versus 62 of every 100 today. Similarly, 65 percent of all working-age North Carolinians had a job in late 2000, as opposed to 59 percent today. While some of the drop is tied to demographic changes, weaker economic conditions also are contributing. And both of these important indicators had been trending downward prior to September.

“In 2017, North Carolina’s unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest one recorded in 17 years despite a marked slowdown in job creation,” said Quinterno. “While the low unemployment rate seems promising, the underlying dynamics are less so, which explains why low rates of unemployment are not generating widespread improvements in living standards.”

Register Soon For “Making Sense of the Census”

CHAPEL HILL, NC (October 19, 2017) – Only a few days remain to register for “Making Sense of the Census: Using Census Data for Local Change,” a training course developed for people working in nonprofit, public, philanthropic, and media organizations.

The course will take place on October 26, 2017, at The Frontier at Research Triangle Park, which is located in the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina.

“Making Sense of the Census” provides an introduction to essential census concepts and sources, along with hands-on opportunities to practice community applications.

Upon completion of the daylong course (9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.), participants will return to their organizations better able to complete such tasks as the following:

• Define a local community in a systematic way for analysis
• Locate needed census data
• Create a demographic and economic profile of a community
• Incorporate census data into reports, grants, presentations, and work documents
• Communicate data to general audiences like boards of directors and civic leaders

No prior exposure to statistics or quantitative analysis is needed to benefit from the course.

People interested in registering for one of the remaining spots should do so by the end of the day on Tuesday, October 24. The registration fee of $195/person may be paid by credit or debit card via a secured Square transaction.

Developed by South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy, this course is the first in a set intended to provide individuals working in social mission organizations with practical orientations to the data collected by public agencies like the US Census Bureau.

More details about the course and answers to frequently asked questions are available in this online flyer. Note that registration is limited to 25 participants on a first-come basis.

Organizations interested in sending multiple people should contact South by North Strategies for details about group discounts. Enrolled university students also are eligible for a discounted rate. For information, contact courses@sbnstrategies.com or (919) 622-2392.

Still Time to Register For “Making Sense of the Census”

CHAPEL HILL, NC (October 5, 2017) – Time still remains to register for “Making Sense of the Census: Using Census Data for Local Change,” a training course developed by South by North Strategies, Ltd. for professionals working in nonprofit, public, philanthropic, and media organizations.

The course will take place on October 26, 2017, at The Frontier at Research Triangle Park, which is located in the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina.

“Making Sense of the Census” provides an introduction to essential census concepts and sources, along with hands-on opportunities to practice local applications. Special attention is paid to the American Community Survey.

Upon completion of the daylong course (9:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.), participants will return to their organizations better able to complete such tasks as the following:

• Define a local community in a systematic way for analysis
• Locate needed census data
• Create a demographic and economic profile of a community
• Incorporate census data into reports, grants, presentations, and work documents
• Communicate data to general audiences like boards of directors and civic leaders

No prior exposure to statistics or quantitative analysis is needed to benefit from the course.

More details about the course and answers to frequently asked questions are available in this online flyer. Note that registration is limited to 25 participants on a first-come basis.

The registration fee is $195/person, payable by credit or debit card via a secured Square transaction.

Agencies interested in sending multiple people should e-mail courses@sbnstrategies.com for details about group discounts. Enrolled university students also are eligible for a discounted rate; for information, e-mail courses@sbnstrategies.com.

This course is the first in a series developed by South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. The goal is to provide individuals working in nonprofit, public, philanthropic, and media organizations with a practical orientation to the data collected by public statistical agencies like the US Census Bureau.

Address additional questions to courses@sbnstrategies.com or (919) 622-2392.