South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Local Employment Rates Down Over The Year

CHAPEL HILL, NC (January 3, 2013) – Between November 2011 and November 2012, unemployment rates fell in 95 of North Carolina’s 100 countries and in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Over that period, the size of the labor force grew in 76 counties and in 14 metro areas. These findings come from new estimates prepared by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Compared to a year ago, local unemployment rates in November were lower across almost all of North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Although the declines in local unemployment rates are positive developments, the drops do not alter the fact that unemployment rates remain abnormally high. In November 2012, 43 counties and two metro areas posted unemployment rates of at least 10 percent. In November 2008, in contrast, just 15 counties and one metro area logged unemployment rates of 10 percent or greater.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 4.3 percent fewer jobs (-181,000) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb to 9 percent from 4.7 percent. In November, the state added 30,600 more jobs than it lost (+0.8 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 4,400 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 145,300 positions (+3.8 percent).

Between October 2012 and November 2012, local unemployment rose in 81 counties, fell in 13 counties, and held steady in six counties. Individual county rates ranged from 5.7 percent in Orange County to 16.3 percent in Graham County. Overall, 43 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 57 counties posted rates between 5 and 10 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to struggle relative to metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In November, 10 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 8.5 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 4.2 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 81.9 percent greater. On a positive note, the size of the non-metro labor force increased over the year, and over the same period, the number of employed persons rose; the number of unemployed persons dropped; and the unemployment rate fell by 1.3 percentage points.”

Over the month, unemployment rates rose in 11 metro areas, declined in one metro area, and held steady in two metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (11.7 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (10.2 percent) and Fayetteville (9.5 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest unemployment rate (6.9 percent), followed by Asheville (7.1 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (7.2 percent).

Compared to November 2011, unemployment rates in November 2012 were lower in in 95 counties and in all 14 metro areas. Over the year, labor force sizes increased in 76 counties and in all 14 metros. Among metros, Jacksonville’s labor force expanded at the fastest rate (+4.1 percent), followed by that of Goldsboro (+3.4 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 71.6 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.2 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions will hinge on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros remains subdued. Collectively, employment in those three metro regions has risen by 3.3 percent since December 2007, and the combined November unemployment rate in the three regions equaled 8.3. That was down from the 9.3 percent rate recorded one year ago but well above the 6.8 percent rate recorded in November 2008. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest November unemployment rate (7.3 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (9 percent), and Charlotte (9.1 percent).

“Labor market conditions across much of North Carolina have improved over the past year, but even with those improvements, conditions are worse than they were in November 2008,” said Quinterno. “Unemployment rates remain elevated across the state, and 1.2 times as many North Carolinians are jobless and seeking work than was the case four years ago.”

National Job Market Grew In November

CHAPEL HILL (December 7, 2012) – The national labor market added in November 146,000 more jobs than it lost. That payroll growth helped to reduce the national unemployment rate to 7.7 percent, which was the lowest rate (seasonally adjusted) recorded since December 2008, when the rate equaled 7.3 percent. Despite the improvements, job growth remained weak in November, and unemployment was elevated.

“November marked the 26th consecutive month of job growth in the United States,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the past three months, the national economy has netted an average of 138,667 jobs per month, a pace that, while positive, is insufficient to push unemployment down to pre-recessionary levels anytime soon. After almost 3.5 years of economic recovery, the national unemployment rate remains 2.7 percentage points above the December 2007 level of 5 percent.”

In November, the nation’s employers added 146,000 more payroll positions than they cut. Gains occurred entirely in the private sector (+147,000), while government employers eliminated 1,000 more positions than they added. Additionally, the payroll employment numbers for September and October underwent negative revisions; with the updates, the economy gained 270,000 jobs over those two months, rather than the 319,000 positions previously reported.

Within the private sector, payroll levels rose the most in the trade, transportation, and utilities  sector (+69,000, with 76.2 percent of the gain occurring in the retail trade subsector), followed by professional and business services (+43,000, with 54.2 percent of the growth originating in the administrative and waste services subsector, which includes temporary help services). The construction sector, meanwhile, shed 20,000 positions, followed by the manufacturing sector, which lost, on net, 7,000 positions, due mainly to payroll reductions by employers engaged in the manufacture of nondurable goods.

“The American economy has added jobs every month for more than two years and has netted 1.7 million positions so far in 2012,” noted Quinterno. “The current average monthly rate of job growth recorded in 2012—an average of 151,454 positions per month—nevertheless is insufficient to close quickly the large jobs gap facing the United States.”

Slack labor market conditions were evident in the November household survey. Last month, 12 million Americans (7.7 percent of the labor force) were jobless and seeking work. The unemployment rate was the lowest one posted since December 2008, when 7.3 percent of the labor force was unemployed. In November, the size of the labor force fell by 350,000 persons, and the share of the population participating in the labor force fell to 63.6 percent, a rate that was below the one recorded last November. The share of the adult population also remained at a depressed level in November (58.7 percent). Nevertheless, compared to a year ago, more Americans were working in November, and fewer persons were unemployed.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher among adult male workers than female ones (7.2 percent versus 7 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (13.2 percent) and Hispanic workers (10 percent) than among White ones (6.8 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 23.5 percent. Moreover, 6.6 percent of all veterans were unemployed; the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 10 percent. At the same time, 12.7 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained scarce in November. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 14.4 percent. Among unemployed workers, 40.1 percent had been jobless for at least six months with the average spell of unemployment lasting for 40 weeks. The leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 53.6 percent of unemployed persons in November. Another 27.6 percent of unemployed persons were reentrants to the labor market, while 11.1 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 7.7 percent of the total.

“Although the unemployment rate in November dropped to a 47-month low, the American labor market remains in distress,” observed Quinterno. “The overall rate of job growth is subpar relative to the problems facing the national labor market, and there simply are not enough jobs for all the Americans who desire work.”

Local Unemployment Rates Fell Over The Year

CHAPEL HILL, NC (November 27, 2012) – Between October 2011 and October 2012, unemployment rates fell in 98 of North Carolina’s 100 countries and in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Over the same period, labor force sizes grew in 68 counties and in 13 metro areas. These findings come from new estimates prepared by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

Local unemployment rates fell across virtually all of North Carolina over the last 12 months,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The improvements do not alter the fact that unemployment rates remain elevated. Last month, 35 counties and two metro areas posted unemployment rates of at least 10 percent. For context, consider how only seven counties and no metro areas had unemployment rates of 10 percent or greater in October 2008.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina has 5.1 percent fewer jobs (-211,900) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate jump from 4.7 percent to 8.8 percent. In October, the state gained 8,000 more payroll jobs than it lost (+0.2 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 3,575 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 114,400 positions (+3 percent).

Between September 2012 and October 2012, local unemployment rates fell in 76 counties, rose in 16 counties, and were unchanged in eight counties. Individual county rates ranged from 5.5 percent in Currituck County to 15.7 percent in Scotland County. Overall, 35 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 65 counties posted rates between 5 and 10 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to lag behind metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In October, 9.8 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 8.3 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 3.5 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals has grown by 78.8 percent. On a positive note, the size of the non-metro labor force increased over the year. Over that same period, the number of employed persons rose, the number of unemployed persons dropped, and the unemployment rate fell by 1.6 percentage points.”

Over the month, unemployment rates declined in all 14 metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (11.7 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (10 percent) and Fayetteville (9.3 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest unemployment rate (6.7 percent), followed by Asheville (6.8 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (7 percent).

Compared to October 2011, unemployment rates were lower in October 2012 in 98 counties and in all 14 metro areas. Over the year, labor force sizes increased in 68 counties and in 13 metros. Among metros, Goldsboro’s labor force expanded at the fastest rate (+3 percent), followed by that of Rocky Mount (+2.7 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 71.5 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.1 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, any meaningful recovery will hinge on economic and employment growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros remains weak. Collectively, employment in these three metro regions has risen by 3.7 percent since December 2007, and the combined October unemployment rate in the three regions equaled 8.1, down from the 9.6 percent rate recorded one year ago yet well above the 6.3 percent rate logged in October 2008. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (7.1 percent) in October, followed by the Piedmont Triad (8.8 percent), and Charlotte (9.1 percent).

“Despite the broad decline in unemployment rates over the past year, labor market conditions across North Carolina remain far from healthy and still are much worse than they were in October 2008, which is when the state’s labor market entered its period of sharp decline,” said Quinterno. “Unemployment rates remain elevated across the state, and 1.3 times as many North Carolinians are jobless and seeking work than was the case four years ago.”

October Employment In North Carolina

CHAPEL HILL, NC (November 16, 2012) – In October, employers in North Carolina added 8,000 more payroll positions than they eliminated (+0.2 percent), thanks to hiring across a range of private-sector industries. Also in October, the number of employed North Carolinians increased, while both the number of unemployed persons and the statewide unemployment rate fell. The October unemployment rate of 9.3 percent was the lowest one recorded since January 2009, when the rate equaled 9 percent. These findings come from new data released by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“North Carolina’s labor market grew in October, as measured by a number of important indicators,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The overall number of jobs in the state rose to 3.96 million, the size of the labor force increased to 4.71 million, the number of employed persons grew to 4.23 million, and the number of unemployed person fell to 0.44 million. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.3 percent, the lowest level recorded since early 2009.”

In October, North Carolina employers added 8,000 more jobs than they cut (+0.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls netted 8,900 positions (+0.3 percent), while public-sector payrolls shed 900 jobs (-0.1 percent), due to cuts in state government payrolls (-3,800, -2 percent). Within the private sector, leisure and hospitality services netted the most jobs (+3,600, +0.9 percent), with 75 percent of the growth occurring in the arts, entertainment, and recreation subsector. The trade, transportation, warehousing, and utilities sector netted 2,900 jobs (+0.4 percent), with 58.6 percent of the gain tied to the retail subsector. Manufacturing payrolls expanded by 2,600 jobs (+0.4 percent), followed by the other services sector (+2,400 jobs, +1.6 percent). The only sectors to shed jobs were professional and business services (-3,400, -0.6 percent), education and health services (-1,800, -0.3 percent), and mining and logging (-100, -1.8 percent).

A revision to the September payroll data found that the state gained more jobs than first estimated (+3,900 versus +100). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 211,900 fewer payroll positions (-5.1 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 3,575 payroll jobs per month, leading to a cumulative gain of 114,400 positions (+3 percent).

“North Carolina’s labor market posted relatively strong growth in the first quarter of 2012, stumbled in the second quarter of the year, stagnated in the third quarter, but began the fourth quarter on a somewhat promising note,” added Quinterno. “North Carolina now has 32,600 more jobs than it did at the start of the year. The general pattern of 2012 has been one of modest growth in the private sector offset by modest declines in the public sector.”

The household data for October also offered an improved view of labor market conditions. Last month, the unemployment rate fell to 9.3 percent, the lowest level recorded since January 2009, when the statewide rate equaled 9 percent. Last month, the number of employed North Carolinians rose (+43,699, +1 percent), as did the overall size of the labor force (+34,678, +0.7 percent). The number of unemployed persons dropped by 9,021 (-0.3 percent).

Over the past year, the total number of unemployed North Carolinians has fallen by 53,054 persons (-10.8 percent), and the number of employed persons has grown by 95,425 persons (+2.3 percent). The unemployment rate also has fallen by 1.3 percentage points, dropping to 9.3 percent from 10.6 percent. In short, more people are working than was the case a year ago.

That said, the recent growth in the statewide labor market is weak in relation to the severity of the employment problems facing the state. North Carolina’s unemployment rate has equaled or exceeded 9 percent in every month since January 2009 and has ranged as high as 11.4 percent. Compared to December 2007, which was when the “Great Recession” began, the statewide unemployment rate is 4.3 percentage points higher, and the number of unemployed North Carolinians is 92.2 percent larger. During the first 10 months of 2012, an average of 449,263 North Carolinians were unemployed in any given month.

Other troubling labor market indicators include a statewide unemployment rate that has exceeded 10 percent in 35 of the last 46 months and depressed labor force participation rates and employment-to-population ratios. Although the labor force participation rate and employment-to-population ratio both rose in October for the second consecutive month, the two measures remain near 36-year lows.

“The October job report contained a number of positive findings, in terms of data related both to employer payrolls and to the labor market experiences of individual households,” observed Quinterno. “The improvements, while welcome, should not blind policymakers to the severity of the problems facing the labor market. North Carolina’s labor market remains scarred by a massive jobs gap, slow payroll growth, and widespread unemployment. North Carolina’s labor market is by no means on the road to a robust recovery.”

South by North Strategies To Author Book On Regional Analysis

CHAPEL HILL, NC (November 9, 2012) – South by North Strategies, Ltd. announced today that it has entered into a publishing agreement with M.E. Sharpe, Inc. to author a book about regional economic and social analysis. The book has the working title Running the Numbers: A Practical Guide to Regional Economic and Social Analysis and is scheduled for release in late 2013.

“This book project is a natural outgrowth of South by North Strategies’ consulting work and research in the areas of economic and social policy,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd. and the author of the book. “The goal of the book is demystify regional economic and social data and analysis through clear, concise explanations of fundamental concepts, sources, and methods and through the use of practical examples based on actual American metropolitan regions.”

“Running the Numbers ideally will benefit any curious reader, and the hope is to craft a practical guide that will assist regional elected officials, public administrators, business executives, and journalists, as well as the staff members and senior managers of nongovernmental and philanthropic organizations,” added Quinterno. “The book also will be of great value to students in a broad range of academic disciplines related to public affairs.”

The book’s publisher will be M.E. Sharpe, Inc., an award-winning independent publisher of books and journals in the social sciences and humanities, including titles in economics, business, political science, management, public administration, and history. The firm is located in Armonk, NY. Harry Briggs, executive editor, acquired the manuscript for M.E. Sharpe.