South By North Strategies, Ltd.

NC Job Market Grew In January

CHAPEL HILL (March 13, 2012) – North Carolina’s job market began 2012 by gaining 17,000 more payroll jobs than it lost. Moreover, annual revisions to employment statistics concluded that the state netted more jobs in 2011 than first reported. At the same time, 10.2 percent of the labor force was unemployed in January. These findings come from data released today by the Division of Employment Security.

“January’s job report contained some positive news,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “North Carolina netted jobs, grew its labor force, saw more people become employed, and reduced both the number of unemployed individuals and the statewide unemployment rate. Revisions to 2011 data also showed that the labor market performed better than first estimated.”

In January, North Carolina employers added 17,000 more payroll jobs than they cut. Net gains occurred primarily in the private sector (+15,400), though the public sector also added some jobs (+1,600, due mainly to hiring by local governments). Within the private sector, trade, transportation, and utilities added the most jobs in absolute terms (+6,200, driven almost entirely by gains in the retail trade subsector). Professional and business services added 3,900 positions with the gains split nearly evenly between the professional, scientific, and technical and administrative and waste management subsectors. The manufacturing sector netted 3,100 positions due chiefly to hiring in the nondurable goods subsector. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality services shed the most positions (-1,200, attributable mainly to a decline in the arts, entertainment, and recreation subsector), followed by construction (-1,000).

A positive annual revision to the 2011 employment data found that the state gained 13,700 more jobs over the course of the year than previously reported (+33,300 versus +19,600). When combined with other data revisions to earlier years, North Carolina now has lost, on net, 227,500 positions, or 5.5 percent of its payroll base, since December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 4,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 98,800 positions (+2.6 percent).

“While the jobs situation in North Carolina appears to be somewhat more positive than previously thought, the state’s labor market remains battered and bruised,” noted Quinterno. “Compared to December 2007, North Carolina has fewer payroll jobs in every major private industry sector except for educational and health services and professional and business services. At current rates of growth, recovery remains a distant destination.”

The household data for January also point to a weak labor market. On the positive side of the ledger, North Carolina experienced an increase in the size of the labor force in January (+6,245, +0.1 percent, as well as a rise in the number of employed North Carolinians (+14,213, +0.3 percent). The number of unemployed persons fell (-7,968, -1.6 percent), as did the unemployment rate. (Note that changes in labor force data for January 2012 may be a function of statistical updates.)

Nevertheless, joblessness remained widespread. There were over twice as many unemployed North Carolinians in January 2012 as there were in December 2007, and the statewide unemployment rate was 5.2 percentage points greater than it was some four years ago. Moreover, the monthly statewide unemployment rate has been at least 10 percent in every month since March 2009.

“New data suggest indicate that North Carolina’s labor market performed somewhat better in 2011 than first thought,” observed Quinterno. “While the job picture appears less bad than previously perceived, that is not the same as saying that the picture looks bright. By any objective measure, North Carolina’s job market remains depressed and continues to make little progress toward undoing the effects of a recession that started four years ago.”

National Job Market Expands In February

CHAPEL HILL (March 9, 2012) – The national employment situation improved in February, as employers added 227,000 more payroll positions than they eliminated. Furthermore, the unemployment rate held steady at 8.3 percent. While the growth in payroll employment and the maintenance of the unemployment rate are positive developments, the national job market remains far from robust.

“February marked the third straight month in which the national economy gained at least 200,000 more jobs than it lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “While 2012 has started well, the extent to which such progress is sustainable is unclear. After all, 2011 started with similar levels of growth, only to see them tail off as the year progressed.”

In February, the nation’s employers added 227,000 more payroll positions than they cut. Gains occurred entirely in the private sector (+233,000), while government payrolls fell by 6,000 positions due mainly to cuts at the federal level (-7,000). Additionally, the payroll employment numbers for December and January underwent upward revisions; with the updates, the economy gained 507,000 jobs over those two months rather than the 446,000 positions previously reported.

Almost every major private-sector industry group netted jobs in February. Professional and business services added the most positions (+82,000 due chiefly to gains in the administrative and waste services sub-sector, which includes temporary help services), followed by education and health services (+71,000), leisure and hospitality services (+44,000 due primarily to growth in the accommodation and food service sub-sector), and manufacturing (+31,000 due entirely to growth in durable goods manufacturing). Meanwhile, the construction industry shed 13,000 positions; the other services sector lost 6,000 jobs; and information shed 1,000 positions.

“Over the past three months, the economy has gained an average of approximately 245,000 jobs,” noted Quinterno. “The current pace of job growth is nevertheless modest relative to the size of the overall jobs gap. The overall economy still faces a shortfall of roughly 10 million jobs—a gap that would take some 5 years to close at the current rate of growth.”

Soft employment conditions were evident in the February household survey. Last month, 12.8 million Americans (8.3 percent of the labor force) were jobless and seeking work. While the number of unemployed Americans and the unemployment rate held steady last month, the share of the population participating in the labor force (63.9 percent) rose slightly, as did the share of the adult population with a job (58.6 percent); regardless, both indicators remain at depressed levels.

Last month, unemployment rates among adult male and female workers were the same (7.7 percent for each group). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (14.1 percent) and Hispanic workers (10.7 percent) than among White ones (7.3 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 23.8 percent. Moreover, 7 percent of all veterans were unemployed in February; the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 7.6 percent.

Jobs remained difficult to find in February. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 14.9 percent. Among unemployed workers, 42.6 percent had been jobless for at least six months with the average spell of unemployment lasting for 40 weeks.

“The February employment report offers much proof that the labor market is not rebounding as rapidly as it should following a recession as severe as the recent one,” observed Quinterno. “The February employment report provides little evidence that that joblessness is about to start declining sharply.”

“While the comparatively good growth in payroll employment in recent months is important, the basic fact remains that the economy still is not generating enough jobs for the millions of Americans who need work and has not done so for almost four years.”

No Rebound For NC Job Market In 2011

CHAPEL HILL (February 10, 2012) – North Carolina’s labor market experienced modest payroll employment growth in 2011, netting a total of 19,600 jobs (+0.5 percent). With such restrained growth, little progress was made against joblessness. The state ended the year with more unemployed workers and a higher unemployment rate than it had one year earlier.

These findings come from a year-end review of labor market conditions released today by South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. Available at Policy Points, the firm’s blog, the year-end review summarizes the major labor market trends of 2011.

“North Carolina netted more jobs in 2011 than in 2010, but the growth was insufficient to recover much of the ground lost during the recession,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies.”2011 was a ‘good’ year relative to the dismal standards of the recent past, but the performance of the labor market remained unimpressive when measured against any objective yardstick. Not only did North Carolina have fewer jobs in December 2011 than it did in December 2007, when the national recession began, but it also had fewer jobs than it did in December 1999. North Carolina simply has logged no net job growth over the last 12 years.”

The review notes that, on a number of indicators, the state’s labor market made little progress in 2011. While private-sector employment grew slightly, sizable reductions in public-sector payrolls offset one-third of the net gain. Even then, the private sector did not grow enough to put a perceptible dent in the monthly unemployment rate, which averaged 10 percent for the year.

“Economic hardship remained widespread in 2011,” added Quinterno. “Nearly 18 of every 100 members of the state’s labor force were underemployed due to the relative scarcity of job openings.”

The review expresses particular concern about the decline of the employment-to-population ratio to its lowest level since 1976, the prospects of the long-term unemployed, and the struggles facing families trying to make ends meet in the wake of job losses. The review notes, for example, that in October 2011, the most recent month with data, 17.6 percent of the state’s population was participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly known as food stamps). The number of participants has grown by 79.2 percent since December 2007, as job losses have pushed the incomes of many households below the program’s strict income eligibility level.

“Unfortunately, there exists little evidence that points to an imminent change from the status quo,” observed Quinterno. “Many factors could weigh on the state’s economy in 2012, and absent robust job growth, joblessness and the associated hardships will remain widespread. 2012 could well be the fifth consecutive year of negative or minimal job growth in North Carolina.”

The full review is at http://www.sbnstrategies.com/?p=9798. Individuals also may access the full review on a smartphone by scanning the Quick Response code below.

Local Job Markets Post Little Progress In 2011

CHAPEL HILL (February 1, 2012) – Between December 2010 and December 2011, unemployment rates rose in 68 of North Carolina’s 100 counties and in 8 of the state’s 14 metropolitan areas. In December 2011, 29 counties and 3 metros had labor forces that were smaller in size compared to one year ago. These findings come from new estimates from the North Carolina Department of Commerce Division of Employment Security.

“December was the weak end to weak year for most of North Carolina’s local labor markets,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “In 59 counties, at least 10 percent of the labor force was unemployed in December, up from 57 counties a year ago. Similarly, the size of the labor force fell in 29 counties, which suggests that joblessness is more widespread than captured in the official unemployment statistics.”

Since the economy fell into recession in December 2007, North Carolina has lost, on net, 7.1 percent of its payroll employment base (-295,300 positions) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb from 4.7 percent to 9.8 percent. In December, the state shed 4,400 more payroll jobs than it added. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 1,300 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of just 27,700 jobs.

Between November and December, unemployment rates rose in 93 counties and were at or above 10 percent in 59 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 6.1 percent in Orange County to 17.5 percent in Graham County. Compared to a year ago, unemployment rates were higher in 68 counties, unchanged in 5 counties, and lower in 27 counties.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets remained weak in 2011,” added Quinterno. “In December, 10.9 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 9.4 percent of the metro labor force. Over the year, the rural unemployment rate held steady. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force is 3.5 percent smaller. Similarly, the number of employed rural residents has fallen by 9 percent, while the number of unemployed rural persons has grown by 90.8 percent and now numbers 141,741.”

Last month, unemployment rates rose in 13 of the state’s metropolitan areas and fell in one metro (Burlington). Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (12.9 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (11.9 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest rate (7.5 percent), followed by Asheville (7.9 percent).

Compared to December 2010, unemployment rates were higher in 69 counties and 8 metros. Moreover, 29 counties and 3 metros had smaller labor forces. Among metros, Wilmington recorded the largest decline in the size of its labor force (-2 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-1.9 percent). Fayetteville posted the largest increase (+3.3 percent), followed by Greensboro (+1.9 percent) and Greenville (+1.6 percent).

In the long term, any meaningful recovery will hinge on growth in the state’s three major regions: Charlotte, the Research Triangle, and the Piedmont Triad. Yet growth remains sluggish. Collectively, employment in these three metro regions has fallen by 4.2 percent since December 2007, and the combined December unemployment rate in the three metros equaled 9.1 percent. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (8 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (9.8 percent), and Charlotte (10.5 percent).

“North Carolina’s local labor markets ended 2011 little different than they started the year,” said Quinterno. “Statewide job growth has been anemic at best, and as a result, nearly a half million North Carolinians are jobless and actively seeking work. The same basic dynamic is playing out to differing degrees in communities throughout the state.”

NC Job Market Ends 2011 On A Flat Note

CHAPEL HILL (January 24, 2012) – North Carolina’s job market ended 2011 little different than it started the year. In December, the number of payroll jobs in the slate fell slightly, as did the number of unemployed persons and the statewide unemployment rate. Over the year, North Carolina netted 19,600 jobs (+0.5 percent) and saw the number of unemployed persons rise by 9,154 (+2.1 percent). The unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage points, ending the year at 9.9 percent. These findings come from new data from the Division of Employment Security.

“December’s job market performance was a disappointing end to a disappointing year,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The total number of jobs in the state was essentially flat, rising by just 0.5 percent in 2011. Despite the net addition of 19,600 jobs, North Carolina has 295,300 fewer jobs than it did in December 2007.”

In December, North Carolina employers shed 4,400 more payroll jobs than they added. Net losses occurred exclusively in the private sector (-5,900, -0.2 percent), while the public sector netted 1,500 jobs (+0.2 percent). Within the private sector, professional and business services lost the most jobs in absolute terms (-3,900, -0.8 percent) with the losses divided almost equally between the administrative and waste management and professional, scientific, and technical services subsectors. The trade, transportation, and utilities sector cut 1,800 positions (-0.3 percent). Meanwhile, manufacturing netted 500 jobs (+0.1 percent), while leisure and hospitality services added 300 jobs (+0.1 percent). In the public sector, a loss of 1,900 jobs within state government offset a gain of 2,800 local government and 600 federal positions.

A positive revision to the November data found that the state gained 4,100 more jobs than first reported (+7,900 versus +3,800). With that data revision, North Carolina has lost, on net, 295,300 positions, or 7.1 percent of its payroll base, since December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 1,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 27,700 positions (+0.7 percent). Put differently, the state’s labor market has replaced just 8.6 percent of the number of jobs lost at the height of the “Great Recession.”

“Compared to December 2007, North Carolina has fewer payroll jobs in every major industry group except for educational and health services and leisure and hospitality services,” noted Quinterno. “Despite experiencing some consistent growth in the private sector in recent months, losses in the public sector have negated much of the modest private-sector gain. Since February 2010, local government employment has fallen by 2.5 percent, and state government employment has contracted by 5.4 percent. Over that span, declines in the public sector have offset 45.6 percent of the gains in the private sector.”

Between December 2010 and December 2011, North Carolina gained, on net, 19,600 jobs (+0.5 percent). Net public-sector losses (-9,800, -1.4 percent) offset 33.3 percent of the net private-sector gains (+29,400 positions, +0.9 percent). In terms of individual private industries, trade, transportation, and utilities grew the most in absolute terms (+9,200, +1.3 percent), while information lost the most jobs (-1,100, -1.6 percent). In the public sector, net losses stemmed from drops in state (-6,500, -3.4 percent) and local (-4,500, -1 percent) employment.

The household data for December also were weak. Last month, the size of the labor force rose slightly (+4,339, +0.1 percent) to 4.51 million. While the total number of employed individuals rose (+9,532, +0.2 percent) and the number of unemployed individuals fell (-5,193, -1.1 percent), unemployment remained at an elevated level of 9.9 percent.

Between December 2010 and December 2011, the size of the labor force increased by 45,822 individuals (+1 percent). Over the year, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points, climbing to 9.9 percent from 9.8 percent. The monthly statewide unemployment rate has been at least 9.7 in every month since February 2009.

“North Carolina’s labor market ended 2011 on a flat note,” observed Quinterno. “Minimal progress in closing the job gap was made during the year, and the unemployment rate is higher now than it was a year ago. Especially alarming is the fact that the share of working-age North Carolinians with a job remains near the lowest level recorded since 1976. In December, only 55.6 percent of working-age North Carolinians had jobs, down from 62.4 percent in December 2007.”

“The December employment report suggests that North Carolina’s labor market posted almost no progress over the course of the year. Four years after the onset of the Great Recession, little suggests that the job market has made—or is about to make—significant strides in putting sizable numbers of displaced Tar Heels back to work.”