South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Weak Job Conditions Prevail Across N.C.

CHAPEL HILL (August 26, 2011) – Between July 2010 and July 2011, unemployment rates rose in 54 of North Carolina’s 100 counties and in 6 of the state’s 14 metropolitan areas. At the same time, 49 counties and 8 metros had labor forces in July that were smaller compared to a year ago. These findings come from new estimates from the Employment Security Commission.

“Sizable reductions in local government payrolls in July led to a further deterioration in employment conditions across North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “In many communities, there were no meaningful improvements in the local job market.”

Since the economy fell into recession in December 2007, North Carolina has lost, on net, 7.3 percent of its payroll employment base (-303,700 positions) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb from 4.7 percent to the current level of 10.3 percent. In July, the state lost 4,100 more payroll jobs than it gained. Over the past year, employers cumulatively added 4,400 more payroll jobs than they cut, but that level of growth—an average of just 367 jobs per month—simply was insufficient to bring down joblessness.”

Compared to the prior month, unemployment rates rose in 39 counties in July, held steady in 13 counties, and fell in 48 counties. Unemployment rates were at or above 10 percent in 66 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 5.2 percent in Currituck County to 17.7 percent in Scotland County. Compared to a year ago, unemployment rates were higher in 54 counties, unchanged in 2 counties, and lower in 44 counties.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets remained especially pressured in July,” added Quinterno. “Last month, 11.3 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, as opposed to 9.9 percent of the metro labor force. While conditions in non-metro communities improved marginally over the year, unemployment remained widespread. When compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now is 2.1 percent smaller. Similarly, the number of unemployed individuals has doubled, while the number of employed persons has dropped by 8 percent.”

Last month, unemployment rates fell in 11 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Rocky Mount had the highest rate (13.8 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (12.4 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest rate (7.9 percent), followed by Asheville (8.1 percent).

Compared to July 2010, unemployment rates were higher in 54 counties and 6 metros. Moreover, 49 counties and 8 metros had smaller labor forces. Among metros, Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-2.7 percent) recorded the largest decline in the size of its labor force, followed by Jacksonville (-2.1 percent). Rocky Mount posted the largest increase (+2.6 percent), followed by Fayetteville (+2.3 percent) and Raleigh-Cary and Wilmington (both +0.7 percent).

In the long term, any meaningful recovery will hinge on growth in the state’s three major regions: Charlotte, the Research Triangle, and the Piedmont Triad. Yet growth remains sluggish. Collectively, employment in these three metro regions has fallen by 3.6 percent since December 2007, and the combined July unemployment rate in the three metros equaled 9.8 percent. Of the three, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (8.5 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (10.6 percent) and Charlotte (11.5 percent). While improvements occurred in all three areas over the year, particularly in the Research Triangle and Piedmont Triad, the improvements did not fundamentally alter the employment situation.

“In recent months North Carolina has witnessed a steady worsening of labor market conditions,” said Quinterno. “Private-sector job growth remains sluggish, and the gains that are occurring are being erased by public-sector cuts. Most indicators now are trending in the wrong direction, and 2011 is on its way to becoming the third consecutive lost year for working North Carolinians.”

Local Govt. Losses Weigh Down Job Market

CHAPEL HILL (August 19, 2011) – Payroll reductions on the part of North Carolina’s local governments canceled out all of the job gains recorded in July in the private sector. Last month, the private sector gained 6,900 more payroll positions than it lost, while the public sector shed 11,000 positions. The total number of jobs in North Carolina therefore fell by 4,100 positions, according to new data from the Employment Security Commission. Moreover, the state’s unemployment rate exceeded the 10-percent mark for the first time since August 2010.

“Cuts in local government jobs weighed down North Carolina’s labor market in July,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “While the private sector performed somewhat well by recent standards, the overall job situation deteriorated. Payroll employment fell, the labor force shrank, unemployment rose, and the share of adults with a job fell to a 35-year low.”

Last month, North Carolina employers cut 4,100 more payroll jobs than they added. Net losses occurred entirely in the public sector (-11,000, driven by the net loss of 11,800 local government jobs), while the private sector added 6,900 jobs. Within the private sector, professional and business services gained the most jobs in absolute and relative terms (+3,600, +0.7 percent), while financial activities lost the most jobs in absolute and relative terms (-1,500, -0.7 percent).

A revision to the June data also found that the state lost 2,800 fewer payroll jobs than first reported (-8,100, versus an original estimate of -9,500). With that adjustment, North Carolina has lost, on net, 303,700 positions, or 7.3 percent of its payroll base, since December 2007. Alarmingly, that job gap has widened steadily since April of this year.

“Compared to December 2007, North Carolina has fewer payroll jobs in every major industry sector except for educational and health services and leisure and hospitality services,” noted Quinterno. “While public-sector employment had been a source of strength earlier in the downturn, it now is depressing growth. Since March 2011, local government employment has fallen by 3.5 percent, and state government employment has declined by 5 percent.”

Between July 2010 and July 2011, North Carolina gained, on net, 4,400 jobs (+ 0.1 percent). All of the growth that occurred in the private sector (+34,700 positions) was more than offset by public-sector losses. In terms of individual private industries, leisure and hospitality services grew the most in absolute and relative terms (+13,200, +3.4 percent), followed by professional and business services (+12,900, +2.7 percent). In the public sector, net losses stemmed from declines in state (-16,200, -8.1 percent) and local governments (-8,800 -2.1 percent).

The household data for July also were troubling. Last month, the total number of employed individuals fell by 10,159 (-0.3 percent), while the number of unemployed individuals rose by 7,620 (+1.7 percent). The size of the workforce fell slightly (-0.1 percent).

Over the year, the number of unemployed North Carolinians fell by 8,081 (-1.7 percent), while the number of employed individuals rose by 7,511 (+0.2 percent). Between July 2010 and July 2011, the size of the labor force held steady. Over the year, the unemployment rate fell to 10.1 percent from 10.3 percent. The July unemployment rate also was the first recorded reading above the 10-percent level since August 2010, when the rate also equaled 10.1 percent.

“North Carolina’s labor market effectively has spun its wheels for the last year,” observed Quinterno. “The job gap has closed only marginally, and the unemployment rate remains above 10 percent. Additionally, the share of working-age North Carolinians with a job has fallen and is now tied with the lowest level recorded since 1976.”

“The July employment report offers yet more evidence that the state’s labor market is worsening rather than improving,” added Quinterno. “Since the labor market bottomed out in February 2010, the total number of jobs in the state has increased by just 0.5 percent. Over the last three months, net job growth actually turned negative due largely to layoffs in the public sector.”

“Unless public leaders acknowledge the magnitude of the current jobs crisis and act accordingly, joblessness and the accompanying hardships will mount across North Carolina.”

Nothing To Celebrate In July

CHAPEL HILL (August 5, 2011) – In July, the American economy added 117,000 more payroll jobs than it lost. While the private sector netted 154,000 positions, the public sector shed 37,000 jobs, due overwhelmingly to reductions by state and local governments. Also in July, 9.1 percent of the labor force was unemployed, while the underemployment rate equaled 16.1 percent. These findings come from today’s national employment report.

“Only in an economy as sickly as the current one could today’s employment report be called a ‘good’ one,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Job growth was anemic and joblessness remains at a shockingly high level. While the unemployment rate dropped slightly, the fall was attributable to people leaving the labor force rather than finding jobs.”

In July, the nation’s employers added 117,000 more payroll positions than they cut. Gains occurred entirely within the private sector (+154,000), while government payrolls fell by 37,000 position. The public sector decline was driven by reductions among state (-23,000) and local (-16,000) governments. In recent months, public-sector reductions have weighed down job growth; in July, public cuts offset 24 percent of the private gains.

Furthermore, the payroll employment estimates for May and June underwent upward revisions. With the revisions, the economy netted 99,000 jobs over those two months rather than the 43,000 positions previously reported.

Several private industries recorded job growth in July. Education and health services added the most positions, (+38,000), followed by professional and business services (+34,000), and trade, transportation and utilities (+28,000). The manufacturing sector netted 24,000 positions due almost entirely to increases in durable goods manufacturing. Financial activities shed the most positions on net (-4,000), followed by information (-1,000).

“Although better than the June report, the July employment report is yet more proof that the American jobs machine is badly broken,” noted Quinterno. “Over the past three months, net job growth has averaged just 72,000 positions. This is not what a recovery looks like.”

The inability of the current pace of job growth to alter employment conditions was reflected in the July household survey. Last month, 13.9 million Americans (9.1 percent of the labor force) were jobless and seeking work. While the unemployment rate and number of unemployed individuals dropped over the past year, so did the share of the population participating in the labor force. In July, the share of the population participating in the labor force (63.9 percent) remained at a level last seen in the early 1980s.

Another cause for concern is the fact that long-term unemployment remains elevated. Last month, 44.4 percent of all unemployed workers had been out of work for at least 27 weeks. A year ago, the comparable figure was 44.7 percent.

In July, proportionally more adult male workers were unemployed than female ones (9 percent vs. 7.9 percent). Similarly, unemployment rates were higher among Black (15.9 percent) and Hispanic workers (11.3 percent) than among White ones (8.1 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 25 percent. Between June and July, unemployment rates for most every major demographic group varied little.

Additionally, 8.4 percent of all veterans were unemployed in July. The unemployment rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 11.8 percent.

“Jobs remained scarce in July,” added Quinterno. “This led many individuals simply to abandon their job searches. All of the improvements in unemployment seen in July were due to people leaving the labor force rather than finding jobs. In fact, the number of employed Americans actually fell in July.”

A more extensive measure of labor underutilization is the underemployment rate, which equaled 16.1 percent in July. Further evidence of the difficulty in finding a job is that, among unemployed workers, the average time out of work rose in July to 40.4 weeks. A year ago, the comparable figure was 33.9 weeks.

“While not as bad as the June report, the July employment report shows that the American labor market is not healing itself. Conditions clearly are not improving, yet policymakers still have not acknowledged the magnitude of the problem,” observed Quinterno. “Absent aggressive action, joblessness will continue to blight American society.”

Midyear Labor Market Review Released

CHAPEL HILL (August 3, 2011) – North Carolina’s labor market recorded virtually no net job growth during the first six months of 2011. Between December 2010 and June 2011, the state gained only 13,900 more jobs than it lost (+0.4 percent). With such weak growth, little progress was made against joblessness. If current trends hold, 2011 will prove another lost year for working North Carolinians.

These findings come from a midyear review of the labor market released today by South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. Available at Policy Points, the firm’s blog, the review summarizes the major labor market trends of 2011.

“While North Carolina has gained some jobs in 2011, the growth has been insufficient to make up the ground lost during the recession,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies. “The economy simply is not creating enough jobs for all those who wish to work, which explains why joblessness and the attendant hardships remain widespread.”

The review notes that, on a number of indicators, the state’s labor market actually has lost ground during 2011 with many trends worsening between the year’s first and second quarters.

“Unfortunately, North Carolina’s labor market appears headed toward another lost year,” added Quinterno. “Right now, there are more factors weighing against growth than propelling it forward. The economic demand needed to spark job growth simply is not there, and the recent re-orientation of public policy around austerity only will exacerbate matters.”

The review is particularly worried about the problems of economic hardship and long-term unemployment. The review notes, for example, that in April, the most recent month with data, 16.5 percent of the state’s population was participating in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly known as food stamps). The number of participants has grown by 70.2 percent since December 2007, as job have pushed the incomes of many households below the program’s eligibility level.

Long-term unemployment also is a concern. Due to the scarcity of job openings, unemployed individuals are finding themselves out of work for record periods of time. Unfortunately, the longer workers are unemployed, the less likely they are to secure new positions due to competition, skills deterioration, and negative stereotyping.

“Absent robust job growth, joblessness and the associated hardships will remain common across North Carolina,” observed Quinterno. “In many ways, we are seeing mass long-term unemployment becomes an entrenched part of North Carolina’s economic landscape. To avoid this disastrous outcome, public leaders must acknowledge the magnitude of the jobs crisis and act aggressively.”

The full review is at http://www.sbnstrategies.com/?p=7712. Individuals also may access the full review on a smartphone by scanning the Quick Response code below.

Still Seeking Signs Of A Recovery

CHAPEL HILL (July 29, 2011) – Between June 2010 and June 2011, unemployment rates rose in 43 of North Carolina’s 100 counties and in five of the state’s 14 metropolitan areas. At the same time, 64 counties and 11 metro areas had labor forces in June that were smaller than one year ago. These findings come from new estimates from the Employment Security Commission.

“June was a terrible month for local labor markets across North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “There were few signs suggesting that any kind of meaningful recovery was underway.”

Since the economy fell into recession in December 2007, North Carolina has lost, on net, 7.2 percent of its payroll employment base (-301,100 positions) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb from 4.7 percent to the current level of 10.4 percent. In June, the state lost 9,500 more payroll jobs than it gained. Over the past year, employers cumulatively eliminated 2,700 more payroll jobs than they added.

Unemployment rates rose in 91 counties in June, held steady in three counties, and fell in six counties. Unemployment rates were at or above 10 percent in 68 counties. Individual county rates in June ranged from 5.5 percent in Currituck County to 17.1 percent in Scotland County. Compared to a year ago, unemployment rates were lower in 52 counties, unchanged in five counties, and higher in 43 counties.

“Labor markets in non-metropolitan communities remain especially pressured,” added Quinterno. “Last month, 11.3 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, as opposed to 10 percent of the metro labor force. When compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force is 2 percent smaller, while the metro labor force is 1.6 percent larger.”

Last month, unemployment rates rose in all of the state’s metropolitan areas. Rocky Mount had the highest rate (13.7 percent), followed by the Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir area (12.5 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest rate (8 percent), followed by Asheville (8.2 percent).

Compared to June 2010, unemployment rates were higher in 43 counties and five metro areas. Moreover, 64 counties and 11 metro areas had smaller labor forces. Among metros, Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (-3.2 percent) recorded the largest decline in the size of the labor force, followed by Goldsboro (-2.2 percent). Rocky Mount posted the largest increase (+1.1 percent), followed by Jacksonville (+0.8 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (+0.2 percent).

In the long term, any meaningful recovery will hinge on growth in the state’s three major regions: Charlotte, the Research Triangle, and the Piedmont Triad. Yet growth remains sluggish. Collectively, employment in these three metro regions has fallen by 4.5 percent since December 2007, and the combined June unemployment rate in the three major metros equaled 9.8 percent. Of the three areas, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (8.5 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (10.6 percent) and Charlotte (11.5 percent).

“North Carolina’s labor market remains down and out,” said Quinterno. “The job growth needed to restore full employment simply is not occurring. Going forward, there are more factors weighing against growth than propelling it forward. Most indicators are pointing in the wrong direction, and 2011 is shaping up to be another miserable year for North Carolina’s local job markets.”