South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Weak Economic Conditions Prevail in August

CHAPEL HILL (September 24, 2010) – Local labor market conditions remained weak across much of North Carolina in August, according to preliminary data released today by the Employment Security Commission. Last month, 50 counties posted double-digit unemployment rates, while 17 counties recorded rates of at least 12 percent.

“The basic local employment picture was unchanged in August,” says John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Although conditions in some communities improved somewhat, joblessness and the accompanying problems remained widespread.”

Since the onset of the recession in December 2007, North Carolina has shed 6.2 percent of its payroll employment base (-259,500 positions) and has watched its unadjusted unemployment rate climb from 4.7 percent to 9.8 percent. Although the state gained 18,600 more positions than it lost in August, almost all of those gains were due to an expected rise in public education employment. After accounting for that development, the state netted just 4,800 positions.

Every part of the state experienced weak labor markets in August. Unemployment rates exceeded 10 percent in 50 counties, and in 17 counties, at least 12 percent of the labor force was jobless and actively seeking work. County unemployment rates ranged from 4.1 percent in Currituck County to 15.7 percent in Scotland County.

“Labor markets in non-metropolitan communities remain quite weak,” adds Quinterno. “Last month, 10.6 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 9.4 percent of the metro one. More alarmingly, the non-metropolitan labor force continued to shrink. Between August 2009 and August 2010, the non-metropolitan labor force contracted by 2.5 percent. Many of those missing individuals are effectively jobless.”

Last month, unemployment rates fell in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (12.7 percent), followed by the Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir area (12.6 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest rate at 7.3 percent.

“Because of the lack of seasonal adjustments, monthly fluctuations in local unemployment rates must be interpreted cautiously, particularly during the volatile summer months,” warns Quinterno. “A better comparison is an annual one.”

Compared to August 2009, unemployment rates were lower in 90 counties and every metro area. Yet compared to a year ago, 71 counties and 8 metro areas had smaller labor forces. Among metros, Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir posted the largest decline in the size of its labor force (-3.6 percent), followed by Rocky Mount (-2.5 percent). Jacksonville posted the largest gain (+6.8 percent).

“Recent drops in unemployment rates have been driven not by improvements in underlying conditions, but by workers abandoning the job market,” cautions Quinterno. “The robust job growth needed to absorb displaced individuals and new workers is not happening.”

In the long term, any meaningful recovery will be driven by growth in the state’s three major metro regions: Charlotte, the Research Triangle, and the Piedmont Triad. Yet job growth in 2010 has been sluggish. Collectively, employment in these three major metro regions has fallen by 4.2 percent since the start of the recession. The overall August unemployment rate in the major metros equaled 9.4 percent. Of the three areas, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (8 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (10.2 percent) and Charlotte (11.4 percent).

“The August jobs report illustrates just how weak local economies really are,” observes Quinterno. “Private-sector employers are not creating positions in any meaningful way, so many North Carolinians who are ready, willing, and able to work are finding themselves blocked out of the labor market. The basic pattern has not changed much since early 2009.”

One somewhat bright spot in the August report was the boost that unemployment insurance benefits provided to individual households and the state’s economy. Explains Quinterno: “Over the past 12 months, unemployed North Carolinians received $5.5 billion in regular state payments and federal emergency benefits. Those payments sparked an estimated $9 billion in statewide economic activity.”

Little Good Job News In August

CHAPEL HILL (September 17, 2010) — August was another difficult month for North Carolina’s job market. Last month, the state gained 18,600 more payroll positions than it lost. Yet almost all of the increase was due to an expected rise in public education employment; after accounting for that development, the state netted just 4,800 positions. Moreover, a decline in the size of the labor force suggests that joblessness is more widespread than reflected in the official unemployment rate.

“Despite a seemingly impressive headline number, the basic employment picture was unchanged in August,” says John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The data are neither consistent with economic recovery, nor suggestive of an imminent rebound.”

In August, employers added 18,600 more positions than they added. The public sector accounted for 74 percent of the gain due to expected hiring by public schools. Private-sector payroll employment, meanwhile, grew by 4,800 positions. Among private industries, trade, transportation, and utilities added the most positions (+1,400), followed by manufacturing (+1,100) and information (+1,000). The gains were offset by losses in leisure and hospitality services (-1,000) and mining and logging (-400).

Additionally, a revision to the July data increased the net job loss first reported for the month. North Carolina actually lost 31,200 positions in July, not the 29,800 positions first reported. With that revision, North Carolina has shed, on net, 259,500 positions or 6.2 percent of its payroll employment base since December 2007.

“North Carolina’s labor market has gone nowhere in 2010,” notes Quinterno. “North Carolina has netted just 26,200 payroll jobs over the course of the year. The pace of growth – 3,700 positions per month – is insufficient to keep pace with population growth, let alone replace the jobs lost during the recession.”

Labor market conditions have been flat over the past year. Compared to August 2009, the state had 36,700 (+0.9 percent) more jobs. In terms of individual industries, government grew the most in absolute terms (+28,100, +4 percent), while professional and business services grew the most in relative terms (+23,200, +5.1 percent). Construction lost the most positions in both absolute and relative terms (-13,600, -7.3 percent).

August’s household data also were troubling. Last month, the labor force contracted by 0.4 percent as 19,740 individuals stopped working or seeking work. The number of employed individuals fell, as did the number of unemployed individuals. Owing largely to the contraction of the labor force, the unemployment rate fell from 9.8 percent to 9.7 percent. The reduction in the size of the labor force is disturbing and suggests that joblessness is much more widespread than reflected in official measures.

“Some 77,500 North Carolinians have left the labor force since May,” observes Quinterno. “The contraction is responsible for much of the recent decline in the unemployment rate. Unfortunately, this is a sign of an unhealthy labor market.”

“The August jobs report illustrates just how weak the economy really is,” explains Quinterno. “Private employers are not slashing jobs at the frenetic pace of late 2008 and early 2009, but they are not adding positions in any meaningful way. Many North Carolinians who are ready, willing, and able to work are finding themselves blocked out of the labor market.”

Philanthropic Efforts to Better Postsecondary Education

Strengthening state postsecondary education and skill development systems – systems that encompass such programs as technical education, literacy instruction, and occupational training – requires comprehensive changes to public policies and institutional practices. To that end, various philanthropic foundations recently have launched ambitious, multi-state, multi-year efforts to raise the educational attainment of Americans.

To boost understanding of the recent wave of philanthropic interest in state postsecondary education and skills development systems, The Working Poor Families Project, a national initiative to strengthen state policies and programs, asked South by North Strategies, Ltd. to identify several reform efforts designed to expand the opportunities available to low-income working families.

The resulting report, Widening The Doorways of Opportunity, profiles seven efforts: Achieving the Dream, the Postsecondary Success Initiative, Complete College America,  Breaking Through, the Developmental Education Initiative, the National Fund for Workforce Solutions, and Shifting Gears.

NC Local Employment Sags in July

CHAPEL HILL (August 27, 2010) – North Carolina’s local labor markets performed poorly in July, according to preliminary data released today by the Employment Security Commission. Last month, 54 counties posted double-digit unemployment rates, while 20 counties recorded rates of at least 12 percent.

“North Carolina’s labor market struggled in July,” says John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Although conditions in some communities improved somewhat, joblessness remains a serious problem across the state.”

Since the onset of the recession in December 2007, North Carolina has shed 6.6 percent of its payroll employment base (-276,700 positions) and has watched its unadjusted unemployment rate climb from 4.7 percent to 9.9 percent.

Every part of the state experienced weak labor markets in July. Unemployment rates exceeded 10 percent in 54 counties, and in 20 counties, at least 12 percent of the labor force was jobless and actively seeking work. County unemployment rates ranged from 4.5 percent in Currituck County to 16.2 percent in Scotland County.

“Labor markets in non-metropolitan communities remain particularly weak,” adds Quinterno. “Last month, 10.8 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 9.5 percent of the metro one. More alarmingly, the non-metropolitan labor force continued to shrink. Since December 2007, the non-metropolitan labor force has contracted by 1.5 percent. Many of those missing individuals are effectively jobless.”

Last month, unemployment rates fell in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (12.8 percent), followed by the Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir area (12.7 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest rate at 7.3 percent.

“Because of the lack of seasonal adjustments, monthly fluctuations in local unemployment rates must be interpreted cautiously, particularly during the volatile summer months,” warns Quinterno. “A better comparison is an annual one.”

Compared to July 2009, unemployment rates were the same or lower in 96 counties and every metro area. Yet compared to a year ago, 81 counties and 8 metro areas had smaller labor forces. Among metros, Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir posted the largest decline in the size of its labor force (-4.5 percent), followed by Burlington (-2.8 percent). Jacksonville posted the largest gain (+7.1 percent).

“Recent drops in unemployment rates have been driven not by improvements in underlying conditions, but by workers abandoning the job market,” cautions Quinterno. ”The robust job growth needed to absorb displaced individuals and new workers is not happening. Much of the little growth occurred earlier in the year has been lost over the summer.”

In the long term, any meaningful recovery will be driven by growth in the state’s three major metro regions: Charlotte, the Research Triangle, and the Piedmont Triad. Yet job growth in 2010 has been sluggish. Collectively, employment in these three major metro regions has fallen by 3.7 percent since the start of the recession. The overall July unemployment rate in the major metros equaled 9.5 percent. Of the three areas, the Research Triangle had the lowest July unemployment rate (8 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (10.4 percent) and Charlotte (11.6 percent).

“Recent trends have exposed just how weak local economies are,” observes Quinterno. “Private-sector activity remains anemic and is not replacing the economic support provided by various policy measures that have ended or are about to end. What little recovery we’ve had appears in danger of stalling out.”

One somewhat bright spot in the July report was the boost that unemployment insurance benefits provided to individual households and the state’s economy. Explains Quinterno: “Over the past 12 months, unemployed North Carolinians received $5.4 billion in regular state payments and federal emergency benefits. Those payments sparked an estimated $8.9 billion in statewide economic activity.”

NC Job Market Goes Nowhere

CHAPEL HILL (August 20, 2010) – The latest employment report for North Carolina is the worst one recorded so far in 2010. In July, the state shed 29,800 more payroll positions than it added. This drop erased 77 percent of the payroll employment gains made during the year’s first half. Moreover, a fall in the size of the labor force suggests that joblessness is more widespread than reflected in the unemployment rate.

“North Carolina’s fragile job market took a turn for the worse in July,” says John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The job report was the worst one of the year and points to a labor market that is deteriorating rather than improving.”

In July, employers cut 29,800 more positions than they added. The public sector shed 27,300 positions with local governments responsible for most of the losses (-26,500). Total private-sector payroll employment fell by 2,500 positions. Among private industries, construction lost the most positions (-2,800), followed by leisure and hospitality services (-1,700) and professional and business services (-1,300). The losses were offset by gains in trade, transportation, and utilities (+2,800), manufacturing (+600), and finance (+600).

Additionally, a revision to the June data eliminated the slight net gain first reported for the month. Rather than gaining 5,100 positions, North Carolina actually lost 3,700 jobs. After accounting for that revision, North Carolina has shed, on net, 276,700 positions or 6.6 percent of its payroll employment base since December 2007.

“Last month’s payroll losses erased 77 percent of the gains recorded during the first half of 2010,” notes Quinterno. “North Carolina has netted just 9,000 payroll jobs since December. The pace of growth – 1,300 positions per month – is insufficient to keep pace with population growth, let alone replace the jobs lost during the recession.”

Labor market conditions have been flat over the past year. Compared to July 2009, the state had 6,000 (+0.2 percent) more jobs. In terms of individual industries, professional and business services grew the most in absolute and relative terms (+19,700, +4.3 percent). Government added 14,000 positions (+2 percent). Construction (-18,300) and manufacturing (-7,900) lost the greatest number of positions over the past year with construction declining the most in relative terms (-9.7 percent).

July’s household data also were troubling. Last month, the labor force contracted by 0.8 percent as 35,612 individuals stopped working or seeking work. The number of employed individuals fell, as did the number of unemployed individuals. Owing mainly to the contraction of the labor force, the unemployment rate fell from 10 percent to 9.8 percent. The reduction in the size of the labor force is disturbing and suggests that joblessness is much more widespread than reflected in official measures.

“Some 59,900 North Carolinians have left the labor force since May,” observes Quinterno. “The contraction is responsible for much of the recent decline in the unemployment rate. Unfortunately, this trend is consistent with a labor market that is declining rather than recovering.”

“The July jobs report exposed just how weak the economy really is,” explains Quinterno. “The economy is proving unable to generate jobs absent the crutch provided by public policy supports, and individuals across the state simply are abandoning the labor market.”