South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Hold Off On The Celebration

CHAPEL HILL (May 21, 2010) – The April employment report released today by the Employment Security Commission points to a state labor market in fragile condition. Job growth is insufficient to accommodate all those who wish to work; unemployment remains elevated; and uncertainty clouds future prospects.

Last month, North Carolina employers added 7,500 more positions than they eliminated. The public sector generated 80 percent of those jobs with federal hiring – mainly for temporary census positions – accounting for 51.6 percent of net public-sector payroll growth. Since December 2007, North Carolina has lost, on net, 270,000 positions or 6.5 percent of its payroll employment base.

“Few positive changes have occurred within North Carolina’s labor market so far in 2010,” says John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Perhaps the best that can be said is that conditions have held steady. However, job growth remains insufficient to absorb new workers, let alone those displaced earlier in the recession.”

In April, North Carolina employers added 7,500 more positions than they cut. The public sector gained, on net, 6,000 positions while the private sector netted 1,500 positions. Among private industries, professional and business services gained the most positions (+6,300), followed by education and health services (+1,900). These gains were offset by losses in trade, transportation, and utilities (-3,100); leisure and hospitality services (-3,100); and construction (-1,800). Additionally, an upward revision to the March data raised net payroll growth for that month from 3,300 to 6,000.

“So far in 2010, North Carolina employers have added 15,700 more positions than they have eliminated,” notes Quinterno. “The average monthly gain of 3,925 is insufficient to meet the natural growth of the labor force, to say nothing of generating jobs for those displaced earlier in the recession. We are not on the road to a swift recovery.”

Despite a recent moderation in job losses, conditions deteriorated over the past year. Compared to April 2009, the state had 33,600 fewer jobs (-0.9 percent). In terms of individual industries, manufacturing (-26,100) and construction (-25,600) lost the greatest number of positions over the past year, while construction also declined the most in relative terms (-13 percent). Government employment grew the most in numerical (+20,400 positions) and relative (+2.9 percent) terms.

Stabilizing labor market conditions are reflected in April’s household data. Last month, the labor force expanded by 0.1 percent as 6,220 additional people sought work. The number of employed individuals rose, and the number of unemployed individuals declined. The unemployment rate therefore dipped from 11.1 percent to 10.8 percent. Nevertheless, since the start of the recession, the number of unemployed Tar Heels has grown by 131.3 percent, and the unemployment rate has jumped from 4.7 percent to 10.8 percent.

“The next few months could be quite difficult for North Carolinians seeking work,” cautions Quinterno. “Job growth is weak, and much of the recent growth has resulted from such government actions as temporary census hiring, housing tax credits, emergency unemployment insurance payments, and recovery act funding. Many of these supports are phasing out, and it is unclear if enough private-sector demand exists to take their place.”

Warned Quinterno, “Conditions could start deteriorating again.”

National Job Market Improves in April

CHAPEL HILL (May 7, 2010) – The national employment report for April points to an improving labor market. Last month, employers added 290,000 more payroll jobs than they eliminated with gains occurring across a broad range of industries. Stabilizing conditions also drew many jobless individuals back into the labor force in attempts to find work.

“The payroll growth that occurred in April is good news, and overall conditions have improved throughout 2010,” said John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The problem is that growth still is not occurring at a pace needed to reverse the severe job losses that occurred during the recession. The employment landscape remains a difficult one to navigate.”

In April, the nation’s employers added 290,000 more payroll positions than they eliminated. Gains occurred in both the public (+59,000) and private sectors (+231,000), as well as in most major industry groups. The largest gains occurred in professional and business services (+80,000), government (+59,000), leisure and hospitality services (+45,000), and manufacturing (+44,000). Losses occurred in the trade/transportation/utilities (-3,000) and information (-3,000) sectors.

“Nearly one-third of the payroll positions added in April were temporary ones connected to the private sector or the Census Bureau,” noted Quinterno. “When those positions end, the individuals holding those jobs likely will find themselves jobless again.”

The job growth experienced in April encouraged individuals who had stopped looking for work to resume their searches, a development that pushed up the unemployment rate. In April, 15.3 million Americans – 9.9 percent of the labor force –  were jobless and actively seeking work. Proportionally more adult male workers were unemployed than female ones (10.1 percent vs. 8.2 percent). Similarly, unemployment rates were higher among Black (16.5 percent) and Hispanic workers (12.5 percent) than among White ones (9.0 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 25.4 percent.

Furthermore, newly available data show that 9.1 percent of all veterans were unemployed in April; the rate among veterans who had served since September 2001 was 13.1 percent.

“Improved labor market conditions led 805,000 individuals to enter the labor force last month, and one-quarter of unemployed individuals said they were re-entrants to the labor market,” added Quinterno. “Nevertheless, jobs remain difficult to find. In April, 45.9 percent of all unemployed workers had been jobless for at least six months. Many other individuals simply stopped looking, and counting those individuals and those working part-time on an involuntary basis brings the underemployment rate to 17.1 percent.”

“The April employment report contains much positive news, but the bottom line is that conditions remain weak,” observed Quinterno. “Given the magnitude of the recession, improvements are not occurring at the levels needed to reverse past job losses anytime soon. We don’t just need positive growth, we need faster growth. Absent that, the recovery will unfold slowly.”

South by North Strategies in the News

South by North Strategies’ analysis of local employment conditions in March was featured in a number of media outlets.

• Durham Herald-Sun: “Triangle Jobless Rates Inch Downward”
• The News & Record: “Jobless Rate Down Across NC”
• High Point Enterprise: “Jobless Rates Fall Across NC”
• Winston-Salem Journal: “Triad Job Scene Rosier”
• WPTF-NewsRadio 680: “Live@5 News Hour”

Local Job Markets Remain Weak

CHAPEL HILL (April 23, 2010) –  Local labor market conditions across North Carolina remained weak in March, based on preliminary data released today by the Employment Security Commission. In March 75 counties posted double-digit unemployment rates, and 43 counties recorded unemployment rates of at least 12 percent.

“Weak labor markets remained the norm in March,” says John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Labor market conditions have stabilized since last summer, and some job creation has occurred, but jobs are not being generated at levels needed to cut down joblessness.”

Since the recession’s onset in December 2007, North Carolina has shed 6.7 percent of its payroll employment base (-280,200 positions) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb from 4.7 percent to 10.9 percent.

Every part of the state experienced weak labor markets. Unemployment rates exceeded 10 percent in 75 counties, and in 43 counties, at least 12 percent of the labor force was jobless and actively seeking work. County unemployment rates ranged from 6.4 percent in Orange County to 17.2 percent in Graham County.

“The labor-market recession continues to batter the state’s non-metropolitan communities,” adds Quinterno. “Last month,12 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 10.4 percent of the metro labor force. Since December 2007, the number of employed individuals in non-metro areas has fallen by 6.8 percent.”

Last month, unemployment rates fell in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas, and every metro netted jobs. Nevertheless, eight metros posted double-digit unemployment rates. The Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir area had the highest unemployment rate (14.5 percent) followed by Rocky Mount (13.5 percent). The lowest metro unemployment rate was 7.8 percent in Durham-Chapel Hill.

“Because of the lack of seasonal adjustments, monthly fluctuations in local unemployment rates must be interpreted cautiously, especially since unemployment normally rises at the start of the year before dipping in the spring,” cautions Quinterno. “A better comparison is to contrast yearly data.”

Compared to March 2009, unemployment rates were the same or higher in 44 counties and 9 metro areas. And compared to a year ago, 44 counties and 2 metro areas had smaller labor forces. Among metros, Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir posted the largest decline in the size of its labor force (-2.4 percent), followed by Burlington (-0.9 percent). Jacksonville posted the largest gain (+6.3 percent).

“Despite some stabilization in labor market conditions, the long-term employment picture remains the same,” cautions Quinterno. “The sustained job growth needed to bring down unemployment simply isn’t there yet.”

In the long term, any meaningful recovery will be driven by growth in the state’s three major metro regions: Charlotte, the Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad. Yet job growth so far in 2010 has been sluggish. Collectively, employment in these three major metro regions has fallen by 4.7 percent since the start of the recession. The overall March unemployment rate in the major metros equaled 10.3 percent. Of the three areas, the Research Triangle had the lowest February unemployment rate (8.7 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (11.3 percent) and Charlotte (12.5 percent).

“One piece of good news contained in the March report is evidence of the powerful role that unemployment insurance has played in blunting the recession,” observes Quinterno. “Over the last 12 months, the Employment Security Commission paid out $5.4 billion in regular state payments, emergency federal benefits, and additional federal compensation. These payments not only helped households coping with a job loss, but they also generated an estimated $8.8 billion in statewide economic activity.”

NC Labor Market Little Changed in March

CHAPEL HILL (April 16, 2010) – The March employment report released today by the Employment Security Commission points to few changes in the state’s labor market. Job growth remains insufficient to accommodate all those who wish to work, and unemployment remains at an elevated level.

Last month, North Carolina employers added 3,300 more positions than they eliminated; private-sector and public-sector employers contributed roughly equally to that gain. Since December 2007, North Carolina has lost, on net, 280,200 positions or 6.7 percent of its payroll employment base.

“Labor market conditions have stabilized since last September,” says John Quinterno, a principal at South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “2010 has witnessed some slight job creation, consistency in the unemployment rate, and a decline in new unemployment claims, but job growth is insufficient to absorb new workers or those displaced earlier in the recession.”

In March, North Carolina employers added 3,300 more positions than they cut. The public sector gained, on net, 1,600 positions (federal hiring accounted for 38% of the total), and the private sector added, on net, 1,700 positions. Among private industries, leisure and hospitality services gained the most positions (+2,200), followed by manufacturing (+2,100). Professional services posted the largest loss (-2,400), followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (-2,100). Additionally, a downward revision to the February data raised net job losses for that month from 2,800 to 3,800.

“So far in 2010, private-sector employers have added 12,600 more positions than they have eliminated, and employment appears to have leveled off in such hard-hit industries as manufacturing and construction,” adds Quinterno. “Unfortunately, private-sector job growth is not occurring at the pace needed to bring about a swift recovery.”

Despite the recent moderation in job losses, conditions deteriorated over the last year. Compared to March 2009, the state had 61,600 fewer jobs (-1.6 percent). In terms of individual industries, manufacturing (-30,200) and construction (-27,700) lost the greatest number of positions over the past year, while construction also declined the most in relative terms (-13.7 percent). Government employment grew the most in numerical (+17,400 positions) and relative (+2.4 percent) terms.

Moderating labor market conditions are reflected in March’s household data. Last month, the labor force expanded by 0.3 percent as 15,300 additional people sought work. The number of employed individuals rose, and the number of unemployed individuals declined. Consequently, the unemployment rate dipped from 11.2 percent to 11.1 percent. Nevertheless, the past year saw the number of unemployed Tar Heels grow by 7.3 percent and the unemployment rate rise to 11.1 percent from 10.3 percent.

“A jobless recovery clearly is taking shape in North Carolina,” observes Quinterno. “While job losses have abated and some private-sector payroll growth has occurred, the growth is insufficient to accommodate the sizable share of the workforce that is jobless anytime soon.”