South By North Strategies, Ltd.

NC Unemployment Rate Rose In Oct.

CHAPEL HILL, NC (November 18, 2016) – In October, employers in North Carolina added 5,700 more payroll jobs than they cut, due entirely to hiring in the private sector. So far in 2016, North Carolina has netted 69,400 payroll jobs (+1.6 percent), due primarily to private-sector growth. Meanwhile, the statewide unemployment rate of 4.9 in October was 0.7 percentage points lower than it was a year ago.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The job growth experienced so far in North Carolina in 2016 is in line with the slow recovery underway since early 2010,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The state remains mired in the same pattern of underwhelming job growth that has characterized that past 6.5 years.”

From September to October, North Carolina employers added 5,700 more jobs than they cut (+0.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls added, on net, 6,300 positions (+0.2 percent), with public sector payrolls shrinking by 600 positions (-0.1 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector gained, on net, the most payroll jobs (+5,500, +0.9 percent), followed by the leisure and hospitality services sector (+3,600, +0.8 percent) and the construction sector (+1,900, +1 percent). The other services sector, meanwhile, cut, on net, 2,200 jobs (-1.4 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (-900, -0.1 percent) and the information sector (-800, -1.1 percent).

A revision to the September payroll data found that the state netted more jobs than first estimated (+11,100 versus +9,700). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 176,600 more payroll positions (+4.2 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 503,200 positions (+13 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 84,700 more jobs than they cut (+2 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 76,800 positions (+2.2 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 7,900 jobs (+1.1 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+27,400, +4.6 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+19,600, +2.4 percent) and the education and health services sector (+9,600, +1.7 percent) sector.

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 has not closed the state’s sizable job gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but it still has far fewer jobs than it should have given the growth in the state’s working-age population.”

The monthly household data for October painted a mixed picture of the state’s labor market. The statewide unemployment rate of 4.9 percent was up from the 4.7 percent rate in September. At the same time, the unemployment rate was lower than the 5.6 percent rate logged in October 2015.

Much of the increase in the statewide unemployment rate between September and October was due to a 30,261 person expansion (+0.6 percent) in the size of the labor force. Between September and October, the number of unemployed North Carolinians actually rose by 10,095 persons (+4.4 percent), while the number of employed persons increased by 20,166 individuals (+0.4 percent).

The month-over-month expansion in the size of the labor force further was reflected in a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market to 61.3 percent from 61 percent. That rate, however, remains just 0.6 percentage points above the lowest monthly rate logged at any point since January 1976.

“Slow-but-steady job growth has defined North Carolina’s recovery from the ‘Great Recession,’ but that growth has not been sufficient to accommodate the employment needs of a growing working-age population,” said Quinterno. “Those conditions explain to a large degree why many working North Carolinians are struggling to realize improvements in their wages, incomes, and living standards.”

A Mixed Performance for NC’s Labor Market

CHAPEL HILL, NC (August 19, 2016) – In July, employers in North Carolina added 12,000 more payroll jobs than they cut, with net gains occurring in the private and public sectors. So far in 2016, North Carolina has netted 65,600 payroll jobs, due primarily to private-sector growth. The statewide unemployment rate of 4.7 in July was one percentage point lower than it was a year ago, as well as the lowest monthly rate recorded since mid-2007.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The job growth experienced so far in North Carolina in 2016 is consistent with the slow recovery underway since early 2010,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “The recovery has yet to reverse the severe economic damage inflicted during the recession.”

From June to July 2016, North Carolina employers added 12,000 more jobs than they cut (+0.3 percent). Private-sector payrolls added, on net, 6,800 positions (+0.2 percent), with public sector payrolls growing by 5,200 positions (+0.7 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector gained, on net, the most payroll jobs (+3,300, +0.5 percent), followed by the financial activities sector (+2,600, +1.2 percent) and the construction sector (+1,900, +1 percent). The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, cut, on net, 1,700 jobs (-0.4 percent), followed by the trade transportation, and utilities sector (-1,500, -0.2 percent).

A revision to the June payroll data found that the state netted fewer jobs than first estimated (+18,800 versus +19,400). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 172,800 more payroll positions (+4.2 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,500 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 499,400 positions (+13 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 94,100 more jobs than they cut (+2.2 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 79,200 positions (+2.2 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 14,900 jobs (+2.1 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services sector netted the most jobs (+28,600, +4.8 percent), followed by the trade, transportation, and utilities sector (+20,700, +2.6 percent) and the leisure and hospitality services sector (+9,500, +2.1 percent) sector.

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 still has not yet closed the state’s sizable job gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but it still has far fewer jobs than it should have given the growth in the state’s working-age population that has occurred.”

The monthly household data for July offered a more negative view of the labor market. The statewide unemployment rate of 4.7 percent was down from the 4.9 percent rate in June. The July rate of 4.7 percent also was the lowest monthly rate logged since June 2007.

Much of the decline in the statewide unemployment rate between June and July, however, was due to a reduction in the size of the labor force by 26,156 persons (-0.5 percent). Between June and July, the number of employed North Carolinians actually fell by 13,203 persons (-0.3 percent), and the number of unemployed persons fell by 12,953 persons (-5.4 percent). Had all of those persons been considered unemployed, the unemployment rate would have been 5.2 percent.

The contraction in the size of the labor force further was reflected in a 0.4 percentage point decline in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market to 61.1 percent from 61.5 percent. That was the lowest rate recorded since last January, as well as one that was just 0.4 percentage points above the lowest monthly rate logged at any point since January 1976.

“North Carolina’s labor market has improved noticeably since the worst part of the ‘Great Recession,’ but conditions still not are strong enough to accommodate all those who want and need work,” said Quinterno. “Such subpar labor market conditions are incapable of generating meaningful improvements in wages, incomes, and household living standards.”

Few Signs Of A “Carolina Comeback”

CHAPEL HILL, NC (August 10, 2016) – Today, Think NC First, a nonprofit organization based in Raleigh, released a set of four issue briefs questioning the claim of a “Carolina Comeback.” While the refrain is often repeated by Gov. McCrory and his supporters, the reality facing most North Carolina families is much different.

According to the briefs’ author, John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm in Chapel Hill, stagnant wages, falling household incomes, subpar economic growth and a jobs gap make North Carolina’s economic recovery more like a distant dream for many Tar Heel households.

“Proponents of the ‘Carolina Comeback’ are fond of listing impressive-sounding statistics without providing the context needed to compare current conditions to pre-recessionary ones or to gauge whether the recovery is meeting the state’s needs,” said Quinterno. “When that missing context is provided, it becomes clear that the recovery has bypassed most North Carolinians, who on any number of indicators are worse off now than when the recession started in 2007.”

The briefs also detail the extent to which the recovery has bypassed most segments of North Carolina’s population, irrespective of race, ethnicity, education, and place. The result is a state increasingly defined by striking economic hardships and widening inequalities.

The series of issue briefs is designed as reference documents for editors, reporters and thought-leaders. Each brief covers a specific economic issue and uses public statistical data to explore the patterns that have unfolded since 2007, paying attention to differences between the contraction (approx. 2007-2009) and expansion (approx. 2009-present) phases of the business cycle.

Click below to download the briefs in PDF format; the briefs also are available below in one file.

Issue 1: A Growing State with Too Few Jobs
Issue 2: A Low-Wage, Low-Skill Recovery
Issue 3: Falling Household Incomes
Issue 4: Insufficient GDP Growth 

For questions about the briefs, interviews and other media requests please contact John Quinterno at johnq@sbnstrategies.com or (919) 622-2392.

Local Unemployment Rates Down Over The Year

CHAPEL HILL, NC (August 3, 2016) – From June 2015 to June 2016, unemployment rates (unadjusted) fell in all 100 North Carolina counties and in all 15 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Over the same period, the size of the local labor force grew in 60 counties and in 13 metro areas.

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Over the past year, many of North Carolina’s local labor markets have continued their slow recovery from the depths of the last recession,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Recent improvements, while welcome, should not obscure the extent to which many local labor markets continue to underperform almost 6.5 years into a recovery.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 3.9 percent more payroll jobs (+161,400). In June 2016, the state gained 19,400 more jobs than it lost (+0.5 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 488,000 payroll jobs (+12.7 percent).

Between May and June of 2016, local unemployment rates rose in 96 of the state’s 100 counties and decreased in 4 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 3.9 percent in Buncombe County to 9.2 percent in Scotland County. Overall, 1 county posted an unemployment rate greater than 8.7 percent, and 60 counties posted rates between 5.2 and 8.7 percent; 39 counties had unemployment rates between 3.9 and 5.1 percent.

“The combined June unemployment rate in North Carolina’s non-metropolitan counties was 3.9 percent,” noted Quinterno. “These 54 non-metropolitan counties are home to 22 percent of the state’s labor force. Compared to December 2007, non-metro areas have 2.4 percent fewer employed persons and 2.9 percent more unemployed ones. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 2.2 percent. In fact, non-metropolitan North Carolina has been responsible for the entire decline in the state’s labor force that has occurred since late 2007.”

In early 2015, the Labor and Economic Analysis Division implemented new definitions of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties consistent with federal changes made based on the 2010 Census. With those revisions, North Carolina now has 46 metropolitan counties and 54 non-metropolitan ones. Additionally, the state has 15 metropolitan statistical areas, up from 14; the addition is the three-county New Bern metropolitan statistical area.

Between May and June, unemployment rates rose in all 15 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (7.5 percent), followed by Fayetteville (6.4 percent) and Greenville (5.9 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4.1 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (4.4 percent), and Durham-Chapel Hill (4.7 percent).

Compared to June 2015, unemployment rates in June 2016 were lower in all 100 counties and in all 15 metro areas. Over the year, meanwhile, labor force sizes increased in 60 counties and in 13 metros. The statewide labor force (unadjusted), meanwhile, was 1.1 percent larger in June 2016 than it was in June 2015.

The bulk of the year-over-year growth in the size of the state’s labor force occurred in the state’s metro areas, which collectively grew by 2.1 percent. Among individual metros, Raleigh’s labor force grew at the fastest rate (+4.1 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Charlotte (+3.4 percent) and Wilmington (+2.5 percent). Decreases in labor force sizes occurred in Burlington (-0.8 percent) and Rocky Mount (-1.2 percent).

With those changes, metro areas now are home to 78.2 percent of the state’s labor force, with 56.5 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

Improvements in North Carolina’s overall labor market are being driven by developments in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Collectively, employment in the 3 broad regions has risen by 13.8 percent since December 2007; the combined unemployment rate in June 2016 totaled 4.8 percent, versus 4.5 percent in December 2007. These regions also were responsible for the vast majority of the employment growth that occurred over the year.

Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (4.7 percent), followed by Charlotte (5 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (5.1 percent).

“Many local labor markets in North Carolina have experienced growth during the ongoing recovery, but those gains have come came at a very leisurely pace,” said Quinterno. “Many of the improvements have been concentrated in the state’s metropolitan areas, especially the Research Triangle, the Piedmont Triad, and Charlotte. Smaller metros and non-metropolitan areas continue to lag behind during a slow recovery that is now almost 6.5 years old.”

No Net Job Growth For Second Straight Month

CHAPEL HILL, NC (June 17, 2016) – In May, employers in North Carolina effectively added no more payroll jobs than they cut, as slight job losses in the private sector were offset by gains in the public sector. May further was the second straight month with effectively no net job growth in the state. Over the year, North Carolina gained 78,100 more payroll jobs than it lost, due primarily to private-sector growth. The statewide unemployment rate of 5.1 percent in May was lower than in April, and it was 0.7 percentage points lower than it had been a year earlier.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“North Carolina has experienced relatively little job growth so far in 2016,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Since the beginning of the year, the state has added just 32,700 more jobs than it has lost, with effectively no net job growth having occurred in three of the last four months.”

Between April 2016 and May 2016, North Carolina employers shed 1,600 more jobs than they cut (-0.1 percent). Private-sector payrolls cut, on net, 3,800 positions (-0.1 percent), with public sector payrolls expanding by 2,200 positions (+0.3 percent). Within private industry, the professional and business services shed, on net, the most payroll jobs (-3,500, -0.6 percent), followed by the construction sector (-2,700, -1.4 percent) and the financial activities sector (-2,500, -1.1 percent). The manufacturing sector, meanwhile, added, on net, 2,700 jobs (+0.6 percent), followed by the education and health services sector (+2,600, +0.4 percent).

A revision to the April payroll data found that the state lost rather than gained jobs (-1,600 versus an original estimate of +1,000 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 139,900 more payroll positions (+3.4 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,200 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 466,500 positions (+12.1 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 78,100 more jobs than they cut (+1.8 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 75,700 positions (+2.2 percent), while public-sector payrolls added, on net, 2,400 jobs (+0.3 percent). Within private industry, the trade, transportation, and utilities sector netted the most jobs (+23,700, +3 percent), followed by the professional and business services sector (+23,200, +4 percent) and the leisure and hospitality services sector (+12,900, +2.8 percent).

“The slow-but-steady payroll growth experienced in North Carolina since 2010 still has not yet closed the state’s sizable job gap,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has more jobs than it did when the recession started, but it still has far fewer jobs than it should have. And the state’s modest rate of progress actually has slowed during the first five months of 2016.”

The monthly household data for May offered a different view of the labor market. The statewide unemployment rate of 5.1 percent was down from the 5.4 percent rate in April. While the May unemployment rate was the lowest one logged since early 2008, it still was slightly above the pre-recessionary rate of 5 percent posted in December 2007.

Between April and May, the number of unemployed North Carolinians decreased by 13,589 persons (-5.1 percent), while the number of employed persons rose by 6,870 (+0.1 percent). Over that period, the size of the statewide labor force shrank by 6,719 persons (-0.1 percent).

Over the year, the statewide unemployment rate fell from 5.8 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians dropping by 25,278 persons (-9.2 percent) to a total of 250,544. During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 142,023 individuals (+3.2 percent) to 4,618,342, and the size of the labor force increased by 116,745 persons (+2.5 percent), reaching a total size of 4,868,886 persons.

Other improvements recorded between May 2015 and May 2016 include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market to 61.8 percent from 61.1 percent and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed to 58.6 percent from 57.6 percent. Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far from the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

“North Carolina’s labor market has improved noticeably since the worst part of the ‘Great Recession,’ but the pace of job growth, especially so far in 2016, is too modest to accommodate all those who want work,” said Quinterno. “Labor market conditions also are too weak to generate meaningful improvements in wages, incomes, and material living standards.”