South By North Strategies, Ltd.

NC’s Labor Market Swung Wildly in July

CHAPEL HILL, NC (August 21, 2020) – In July, employers in North Carolina collectively added 57,200 more payroll jobs than they cut (+1.4 percent), with net gains in the government sector generating 76 percent of the total increase. The July household survey, meanwhile, recorded a rise in unemployment, with the statewide unemployment rate increasing to 8.5 percent and the number of unemployed persons jumping by 18 percent to 419,812.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The COVID-19 crisis continues to scramble North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Sizable month-to-month fluctuations should not obscure the fact that, since February, employers collectively have eliminated 325,700 payroll jobs, with all of the losses originating in the private sector. Compared to February, the state has 7.1 percent fewer jobs.”

In July 2020, employers added 57,200 more payroll jobs than they cut, as firms continued to re-open following the relaxation of various stay-at-home orders. For instance, the number of payroll positions tied to accommodation & food service establishments rose by 8,500 (+2.2 percent). Even with that gain, the sector is almost 30 percent smaller than it was in February.

Collectively, public-sector employers added 43,400 more jobs than they cut in July (+6.2 percent), with virtually all of the job creation occurring among local governments. The private sector, in contrast, netted 13,800 payroll positions (+0.4 percent). Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector netted the most positions (+8,500, +2.2 percent), followed by the professional and business services sector (+4,800, +0.8 percent) and the trade, transportation & utilities sector (+3,600, + 0.4 percent). Those gains were offset by net losses in the manufacturing sector (-5,600, -1.3 percent) and the other services sector (-1,000, -0.6 percent).

“The COVID-19 crisis ended the economic expansion that began in North Carolina in early 2010,” observed Quinterno. “Since February, the state has given back 72 percent of all the job growth that occurred in North Carolina between late 2007 and early 2020. For more perspective, consider how, since February, the state has lost about the same number of jobs as it did at the worst part of the last recession. North Carolina has experienced in five months job losses that took a bit more than two years to occur in a downturn widely regarded as being horrific.”

The July household survey offered further evidence of a wildly gyrating labor market. Last month, the unemployment rate rose to 8.5 percent from the 7.5 percent rate logged in June. Month-over-month, the number of unemployed persons rose by 62,712 (+17.6 percent), rising to 419,812 from 357,100. At the same time, the number of people in the labor force rose by some 135,000 people in July, which suggests that more workers have returned to work or resumed looking for work.

“Since February, the number of unemployed North Carolinians has more than doubled, rising to 419,812 from 182,606,” noted Quinterno. “Over that period, the statewide unemployment rate has more than doubled, jumping to 8.5 percent from 3.6 percent. For various technical reasons, that estimate is likely an undercount of the true extent of joblessness in the state.”

Also, since February, an estimated 192,505 people have exited the state’s labor force entirely, thereby reducing its size to 4.9 million from 5.1 million (-3.8 percent). In July, the share of the working-age population even participating in the labor force was 58.9 percent, down from 61.6 percent in February.

Moreover, the number of employed persons has fallen to 4.5 million from 4.9 million since February. In July, only 53.9 percent of working-age North Carolinians were employed, up from June’s rate of 53.1 percent, but down sharply from February’s rate of 59.4 percent.

“The monthly employment data, while important, are lagging well behind actual economic and public health facts on the ground,” cautioned Quinterno. “The monthly employment report provides a snapshot of conditions in mid-July, but the most recent weekly unemployment insurance claims report showed that North Carolina was paying or processing 228,244 claims for regular unemployment insurance benefits, along with 188,906 claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which extends insurance to individuals who are otherwise ineligible. Another 208,000 claims were filed for other programs, primarily Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which provides benefits to those who have exhausted their regular benefits. All of this suggests that unemployment remains a problem of crisis proportions.”

Also, the COVID-19 crisis has worsened since the middle of July. Based on one analysis of public health data, the total number of confirmed cases in North Carolina has almost doubled since July 12, rising to 149,900 confirmed cases from 85,700. This has led the state to continue its go-slow approach to re-opening while causing some local governments to impose new restrictions on economic activities or to extend existing restrictions. The impact of these developments is not reflected in the July employment report, nor is the fallout in university communities where campuses opened only to quickly close and return to online operations.

“The actions necessary to fight the novel coronavirus and protect public health have caused chaos in North Carolina’s labor market,” reflected Quinterno. “While job growth has trended up in recent months, the state has lost about as many jobs as it did at the worst part of the Great Recession. Many of the recent gains are tenuous and could be erased by deteriorating public health conditions. By any measure, North Carolina is mired in a severe recession.”

“The virus is what is driving the negative impacts on households and businesses,” warned Quinterno. “Conditions may very well worsen over the fall if new lockdowns prove necessary, if Congress fails to re-authorize various forms of federal aid like enhanced unemployment insurance and economic impact payments, and if public-sector employers slash their payrolls and spending in response to collapsing tax revenues.”

“State and federal policymakers must prepare for a prolonged crisis and deliver long-term aid to individual households and firms at a scale and for a duration longer than envisioned when Congress passed the CARES Act. Action is needed on every front sooner rather than later.”

North Carolina’s Labor Market Continues Its Wild Ride

CHAPEL HILL, NC (July 17, 2020) – In June, employers in North Carolina collectively added 173,200 more payroll jobs than they cut (+4.3 percent), with net gains in the broad leisure and hospitality services sector generating 40 percent of the total increase. The June household survey, meanwhile, recorded a drop in unemployment, with the statewide unemployment rate falling to 7.6 percent and the number of unemployed persons declining by 41 percent.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The COVID-19 crisis has scrambled North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Sizable month-to-month fluctuations should not mask the fact that, since February, employers collectively have eliminated 377,300 payroll jobs, with 89.5 percent of the losses originating in the private sector. Compared to a year ago, the state has 7.4 percent fewer jobs.”

In June 2020, employers added 173,200 more payroll jobs than they cut as shuttered firms re-opened following the relaxation of various stay-at-home orders. For instance, the number of payroll positions tied to accommodation & food service establishments rose by 55,900 (+20.6 percent), while the number of positions in retail trade establishments rose by 18,000 (-4 percent).

Collectively, private-sector employers added 152,400 more payroll jobs than they cut in June (+4.5 percent). Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector netted the most positions (+68,900, +22.3 percent), followed by the trade, transportation & utilities sector (+22,300, + 2.8 percent); the other services sector (+19,600, +14.2 percent); and the education and health services sector (+18,900, +3.3 percent). Even with these gains North Carolina had 306,200 fewer private-sector jobs (-8 percent) than it did a year ago.

“The COVID-19 crisis ended to the economic expansion that began in North Carolina in early 2010,” observed Quinterno. “Since February, the state has given back about almost half of the net job growth logged during the decade-long expansion. For even more perspective, consider how in June 2020, North Carolina had just 303,000 more jobs than it did in June 2000.”

The June household survey offered further evidence of a scrambled labor market. Last month, the unemployment rate fell to 7.6 percent from the 12.8 percent rate logged in May. Month-over-month, the number of unemployed persons fell by 252,000 (-40.9 percent), dropping to 363,465 from 615,512. Note, however, that 24,549 people left the labor force entirely last month. If those individuals were counted as unemployed, the unemployment rate would have been 8.1 percent.  

“Since February, the number of unemployed North Carolinians has doubled, rising to 363,465 from 182,606,” noted Quinterno. “Over that period, the statewide unemployment rate more than doubled, jumping to 7.6 percent from 3.6 percent. For various technical reasons, that estimate is likely an undercount of the true extent of joblessness in the state.”

Also, since February, an estimated 322,976 people have exited the state’s labor force entirely, thereby reducing its size to 4.8 million from 5.1 million (-6.3 percent). In June, the share of the working-age population even participating in the labor force was 57.4 percent, down from 61.6 percent in February.

Moreover, the number of employed persons has fallen to 4.4 million from 4.9 million since February. In June, only 53.1 percent of working-age North Carolinians were employed, up from May’s rate of 50.4 percent, but down sharply from February’s rate of 59.4 percent.

“The monthly employment data, while important, are lagging well behind actual economic and public health facts on the ground,” cautioned Quinterno. “The monthly employment report provides a snapshot of conditions in mid-June, but the most recent weekly unemployment insurance claims report showed that North Carolina was paying or processing 385,631 claims for regular unemployment insurance benefits, along with 237,113 claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which extends insurance to individuals who are otherwise ineligible. This suggests that unemployment remains a serious problem for hundreds of thousands of North Carolinians.”

Also, the COVID-19 crisis has worsened since the middle of June. Based on one analysis of public health data, the total number of confirmed cases in North Carolina has more than doubled since June 12, rising to 95,500 confirmed cases from 41,200. This has led the state to slow the pace of re-opening while causing some local governments to impose new restrictions on economic activities. The impact of these developments is not reflected in the June employment report.

“The actions necessary to fight the novel coronavirus and protect public health have caused chaos in North Carolina’s labor market,” reflected Quinterno. “While job growth accelerated in June following the relaxation of various state and local stay-at-home orders, those gains are tenuous and could be erased by deteriorating public health conditions. Even with those gains, labor market conditions remain much worse than they were at the start of the year.”

“The virus is what is driving the negative impacts on households and businesses,” warned Quinterno. “Conditions may very well worsen over the summer if new lockdowns prove necessary, if Congress permits various forms of federal aid like enhanced unemployment insurance and the Paycheck Protection program to expire, and if public-sector employers slash their payrolls and spending in response to collapsing tax revenues.”

“State and federal policymakers must prepare for a prolonged crisis and deliver long-term aid to individual households and firms at a scale and for a duration longer than envisioned when Congress passed the CARES Act. Action is needed sooner rather than later.”

North Carolina’s Labor Market Still in Crisis in May

CHAPEL HILL, NC (June 19, 2020) – In May, employers in North Carolina collectively added 67,100 more payroll jobs than they cut (+1.7 percent), with net gains in the private sector offset by net losses in the public sector. The May household survey, meanwhile, recorded a large increase in the number of unemployed North Carolinians. The state unemployment rate was 12.9 percent, which was tied with the April 2020 rate for the highest logged in any month since 1976.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The COVID-19 crisis has devastated North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Since February, employers collectively have eliminated 548,700 payroll jobs, with 89 percent of the losses originating in the private sector. Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, the last time North Carolina had so few payroll jobs was in August 2013.”

In May 2020, employers added 67,100 more payroll jobs than they cut as shuttered firms re-opened following the relaxation of various state and local stay-at-home orders. For instance, the number of payroll positions tied to food service and drinking establishments rose by 40,100 (+19.1 percent).

Collectively, private-sector employers added 102,700 more payroll jobs than they cut in May (+3.1 percent). Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector netted the most positions (+44,800, +16.8 percent), followed by the trade, transportation & utilities sector (+17,200, + 2.2 percent) and the education and health services sector (+16,700, +3 percent). The net increase in that sector was due to the re-opening of establishments offering ambulatory health care services.

More than a third of the private-sector gain, however, was erased by net reductions by public-sector employers, which collectively cut 35,600 more jobs than they added (-5 percent). Public-sector losses were driven overwhelmingly by net cuts in state and local educational employment.

“The COVID-19 crisis ended to the economic expansion that began in North Carolina in early 2010,” observed Quinterno. “Since February, the state has given back about 70 percent of the net job growth logged during the decade-long expansion. For further perspective, consider how in May 2020, North Carolina had just 150,400 more jobs than it did in May 2000.”

The May household survey offered further evidence of a labor market in crisis. Last month, the unemployment rate reached 12.9 percent, which was the same rate posted in April following data revisions. A monthly rate of 12.9 percent is the highest rate recorded in North Carolina in the history of the modern data series, which dates to 1976. Last month, 621,713 North Carolinians were unemployed, which also was the highest figure logged in any month since 1976.  

“Since February, the number of unemployed North Carolinians has more than tripled, rising to 621,713 from 182,606,” noted Quinterno. “Over that period, the statewide unemployment rate also has more than tripled, jumping to 12.9 percent from 3.6 percent. For various technical reasons, that estimate is likely an undercount of the true extent of joblessness in the state.”

Also, since February, an estimated 293,000 people have exited the state’s labor force entirely, thereby reducing its size to 4.8 million from 5.1 million. In May, the share of the working-age population even participating in the labor force was 57.9 percent. While up from April, the state’s labor force participation rate is hovering near the lowest value posted since 1976.

Moreover, the number of employed persons has fallen to 4.2 million from 4.9 million since February. In May, only 50.4 percent of working-age North Carolinians were employed, up from April’s rate of 49.4 percent, which was the lowest monthly value logged since 1976.

“The actions necessary to fight the novel coronavirus and protect public health have caused chaos in North Carolina’s labor market,” reflected Quinterno. “While job growth ticked up in May following the relaxation of various state and local stay-at-home orders, record numbers of people in North Carolina are jobless and are unlikely to return to work anytime soon. In fact, the numbers likely will worsen over the summer if various forms of federal aid like enhanced unemployment insurance and the Paycheck Protection program expire and if public-sector employers slash their payrolls and spending in response to collapsing tax revenues.”

“The virus is what is driving the negative impacts on households and businesses,” warned Quinterno. “State and federal policymakers must prepare for a prolonged crisis and deliver long-term aid to individual households and firms at a scale and for a duration longer than envisioned when Congress passed the CARES Act. Action is needed sooner rather than later.”

How Many Tar Heels Are Receiving Unemployment Insurance?

The economic fallout of the COVID-19 crisis has driven record numbers of people across North Carolina to apply for unemployment insurance.

In the benefit week ending on March 7, 2020 (filing week ending March 14), the last one before the onset of the COVID-19 recession, the Division of Employment Security received 3,533 initial claims for unemployment insurance compensation. The next week, the number of claims jumped to 94,083, and ever since then, the state has received an average of 92,712 new claims each week, based on data reported to the US Department of Labor (USDOL).

In recent weeks, observers have asked a seemingly simple question: How many people in North Carolina are receiving unemployment insurance? Answering that question, however, is not so simple due to the idiosyncratic ways in which unemployment insurance data are tabulated and reported, the crushing volume of claims filed, and the rapid establishment by the US Congress of three supplemental emergency programs.

As of the benefit week ending on May 23 (filing week ending May 30), the most recent with data, 815,889 people in North Carolina either i) were receiving unemployment insurance or ii) had applied recently for benefits and were waiting to receive them.

Put differently, 18 of every 100 workers in North Carolina were receiving or were waiting to receive unemployment insurance compensation at the end of May

To arrive at this estimate, South by North Strategies, Ltd. adapted a methodology from the Economic Policy Institute for use with state-specific data (not seasonally adjusted) reported weekly by USDOL. (Note: these figures differ from the daily ones posted by the NC Department of Commerce; those numbers cover a longer time span and have not been processed yet to meet federal reporting standards.)

What Is Unemployment Insurance?

Established in 1935, unemployment insurance is a federal-state partnership that shields workers from the risk of losing a job through no fault of their own by replacing a portion of lost wages. While the federal government establishes the general framework, states have broad latitude when it comes to levying the payroll taxes that fund normal benefits, establishing monetary and non-monetary eligibility criteria, & setting benefit amounts. All of North Carolina’s employment security laws are found in Chapter 96 of the General Statutes.

Which Insurance Programs Currently Exist?

In North Carolina, eligible claimants of regular state-funded insurance can receive no more than $350/week in benefits, with the exact amount determined by a formula linked to the person’s earnings history. Currently, a claimant can receive insurance for no more than 12 weeks, which is the shortest maximum duration periods in the country (tied with FL).

As part of the CARES Act, Congress established three temporary, supplemental insurance programs funded fully by the federal government:

• Pandemic Unemployment Insurance Compensation (PUC): This program adds an extra $600/week to the regular state-funded benefits received by claimants. The program began on March 29 and is set to expire on July 31.
• Pandemic Unemployment Unemployment Compensation (PEUC): This program provides claimants who exhaust their regular state-funded benefits with an additional 13 weeks of insurance payments. The program runs through Dec. 31, and for weeks ending on or behalf July 31, claimants also receive PUC.
• Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA): This program provides unemployment insurance benefits to individuals normally ineligible for regular state-funded benefits, such as independent contractors, the self employed, and “gig” workers. The program runs through Dec. 31, and for weeks ending before July 31, claimants also receive PUC. They also may be eligible for PEUC.

Lastly, an existing feature of federal and state unemployment insurance law is the Extended Benefits (EB) program. In states experiencing high unemployment, individuals who have exhausted their regular state benefits may receive up to 13 more weeks of benefits (in some cases, 20 weeks). Normally, the program’s costs are split between the federal government and the states, but currently, the federal government is paying all the costs. North Carolina triggered “on” to the program as of May 17.

How Many People in North Carolina Are Receiving Benefits?

In recent weeks, observers and journalists have attempted to estimate how many people in North Carolina are receiving benefits by looking at the number of claims reported each week by the state to the US Department of Labor. That approach is problematic for several reasons, including the fact that the top-line number only shows claims for regular state-funded claims and excludes claims related to the PUA and PEUC programs. At the other end of the range, there may be double-counting of people if someone applied for both regular benefits and PUA, either by mistake or before the state stood up PUA processing.

Focusing instead on the number of people who are receiving benefits or have applied and are waiting for a benefit determination can better isolate the number of people in North Carolina turning to the unemployment insurance system. Applying the methodology noted above to USDOL claims data (not seasonally adjusted) for the benefit week ending on May 23 (meaning claims were filed in the week of May 30) yields the following estimates:

• 543,011 North Carolinians were receiving regular state-funded benefits as of May 23. (USDOL calls these “continuing claims.”)
• 80,602 North Carolinians had filed for regular state-funded benefits and were awaiting benefit determinations as of May 23. (USDOL calls these “initial claims.”)
• 72,422 North Carolinians were receiving PUA benefits as of May 23. (Continuing claims)
• 119,854 North Carolinians had filed for PUA benefits and were awaiting benefit determinations as of May 23. (Initial claims.)
• No claims (initial or continuing) were reported for PEUC, EB or certain other smaller programs as of May 23.

When added together, some 815,889 people in North Carolina either i) were receiving unemployment insurance or ii) had applied recently for benefits and were waiting to receive them as of May 23, the last week with data. The regular state program was serving 76 percent of those people, with PUA serving 24 percent. (Note that the high number of PUA claims relative to the number of regular claims illustrates just how many people currently are left out of the regular state-funded insurance program.)

Even more importantly, 75 of every 100 claims for regular state-funded benefits and PUA were in paid status as of May 23.

How Can Those Numbers Be Contextualized?

To place the proceeding estimate in useful context, consider how the state’s labor force (not seasonally adjusted) was estimated at 4,675,542 people in April, the last month with data from the NC Department of Commerce. The 815,889 people in North Carolina either receiving unemployment insurance or waiting for an application to be processed equaled 18 percent of the state’s labor force.

Put differently, approximately 18 of every 100 workers in the state were drawing or were waiting to draw unemployment insurance benefits as of the end of May.

For additional context, consider that the City of Charlotte, which was North Carolina’s most populous municipality as of 2018, had some 853,000 residents. If all the people drawing or waiting to draw unemployment insurance in North Carolina as of May 23 were to gather in one place, they would form a city almost as large as Charlotte and one larger than any other city in the state.

Who Is Receiving Unemployment Insurance?

Although the weekly claims report released by USDOL contains no information on the demographic characteristics of claimants, other data tabulated by the North Carolina Department of Commerce offer insights.

In April, the last month with complete data, 547,212 people in North Carolina filed continuing claims. Women accounted for 58 percent of the total, men 42 percent. In terms of race, 61 of every 100 continuing claimants identified as white, 25 of every 100 as African American. In total, 27 percent of continuing claimants were between the ages of 25-34, and altogether, 40 percent of claimants were between the ages of 16 and 34.

In terms of industry, two thirds of all continuing claims were linked to the following four sectors: 23 percent to the leisure and hospitality sector; 16 percent to the trade, transportation and utilities sector (which includes retail trade); 14 percent to the education and health services sector; and 14 percent to manufacturing.

What Financial Impact Is Unemployment Insurance Having?

Although the weekly claims report from USDOL contains no financial data, the financial support provided by unemployment insurance currently is serving as a lifeline for more than 800,000 North Carolinians. That income replacement, in turn, allows those beneficiaries to maintain their spending on essential goods and services like groceries.

According to the North Carolina Department of Commerce, the state paid out 1.7 million weeks of continuing benefits in April. If each week of benefits received the $600/week PUC supplement, that one program alone would have placed $1 billion in the hands of North Carolina workers.

Meanwhile, if each of those 1.7 million weeks in continuing benefits was for the average state-funded weekly benefit of $270, which is the most recent figure available, then that program would have boosted the resources available to unemployed North Carolinians by $459 million. (Note that actual weekly benefit amounts vary by earnings, with lower-paid workers receiving less than higher-paid workers, up to the statewide benefit cap of $350/week. )

While the available numbers for April do not break out PUA benefits, North Carolina did not start processing such claims until the end of the month, which suggests that the financial impact of that program only will begin to appear meaningfully when the May data are released.

Take together, these admittedly back-of-the-envelope financial estimates point to the importance of extended unemployment insurance benefits to people across the state. The funds, especially the PUC supplement of $600/week, are providing financial support to households across the state, which is allowing them to continue to support local economies. Absent those funds, the recession stemming from the COVID-19 crisis would be worse, with joblessness being even more pronounced than the crisis levels it already has reached. ##

North Carolina’s Unemployment Rate Soars to 12.2 Percent in April

CHAPEL HILL, NC (May 22, 2020) – In April, employers in North Carolina collectively eliminated 571,700 more payroll jobs than they added (-12.5 percent), with losses occurring in every major industrial sector. The April household survey, meanwhile, recorded a massive increase in the number of unemployed North Carolinians. The state unemployment rate rose to 12.2 percent, which is the highest rate logged in any month since 1976.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“The COVID-19 crisis has had a devastating impact on North Carolina’s labor market,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Last month, employers collectively eliminated 571,000 payroll jobs, which was the greatest contraction recorded in any month since 1990. Since February, 13 of every 100 payroll jobs in the state simply have disappeared.”

In April 2020, North Carolina employers cut 571,000 more payroll jobs than they added (-12.5 percent), with the private-sector responsible for 95 percent of the net loss. Within private industry, the leisure and hospitality sector shed the most positions (-249,800, -48.8 percent), followed by the education and health services sector (-63,200, -10.2 percent); the trade, transportation & utilities sector (-63,200, -7.5 percent); the professional and business services sector (-66,700, -8.6 percent); and the manufacturing sector (-51,200, -10.8 percent.) And government payrolls contracted by 26,000 positions (-3.5 percent), due primarily to the loss of 20,500 local government jobs (-4.5 percent).

“The onset of the coronavirus crisis ended the economic expansion that began in North Carolina in early 2010,” observed Quinterno. “During that decade of steady, if insufficient, job growth, the total number of payroll jobs in North Carolina rose by 20 percent, climbing to 4.6 million from 3.8 million. Since February, the state has given back about 80 percent of that net job growth, with even more losses likely to occur in coming months.”

The April household survey provided further evidence of a labor market that has fallen into crisis. Last month, the unemployment rate soared to 12.2 percent, which was the highest monthly rate recorded in North Carolina in the history of the modern data series, which dates to 1976. Last month, 573,188 North Carolinians were unemployed, which also was the highest figure logged in any month since 1976.

“Since February, the number of unemployed North Carolinians has more than tripled, rising to 573,118 from 182,606,” noted Quinterno. “Over that period, the statewide unemployment rate also has more than tripled, jumping to 12.2 percent from 3.6 percent. For various technical reasons, that estimate is likely an undercount of the true extent of joblessness in the state.”

Also, since February, an estimated 429,000 people have exited the state’s labor force entirely, thereby reducing its size to 4.7 million from 5.1 million. The last time the labor force was so small was in mid-2014. In April, the share of the working-age population even participating in the labor force dropped to 56.3 percent, the lowest monthly figure ever posted since 1976.

Moreover, the number of employed persons has fallen to 4.1 million from 4.9 million since February. The last time so few people were employed was in early 2010. In April, only 49.4 percent of working-age North Carolinians were employed, which was the lowest monthly value ever logged since 1976.

“The actions necessary to fight the novel coronavirus and protect public health have caused chaos in North Carolina’s labor market,” reflected Quinterno. “Large numbers of North Carolinians have lost work through no fault of their own, and the numbers are apt to rise in coming months. No communities or populations will be spared, although some people and places will suffer much, much more than others absent help.”

“The virus is what is driving the negative impacts on households and businesses,” warned Quinterno. “State and federal policymakers must prepare for a prolonged crisis and deliver long-term aid to individual households and firms at a scale and for a duration longer than envisioned when Congress passed the CARES Act. An essential part of any response should be the provision of meaningful aid to state and local governments to prevent the employment crisis from spilling into the public sector and causing both direct job losses and losses tied to the termination of contracts with private-sector vendors in response to budget cuts.”