South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Manufacturing In The South Atlantic: March 2012

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s latest survey of manufacturing activity in the South Atlantic (District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia):

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region expanded in March for the fourth straight month, but at a more temperate pace than a month ago, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. All broad indicators — including shipments, new orders, and employment — continued to grow but at a rate below February’s pace. Most other indicators also suggested moderate activity. District contacts reported capacity utilization grew more slowly, while backlogs held steady. Likewise, delivery times and finished goods inventories grew at a modestly slower rate.
…
Looking forward, assessments of business prospects for the next six months were generally in line with last month’s readings. Contacts at more firms anticipated that shipments, new orders, backlogs, capacity utilization, and capital expenditures would continue to grow at a solid pace in the months ahead.

Midweek Humor: Muppet Edition

Felix Salmon and some Muppet friends sing about their relationship to Goldman Sachs.

Around The Dial – March 27, 2012

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Off the Charts looks back at the history of the Affordable Care Act.
• Mark Schmitt argues for “putting trust on the agenda.”
• Mother Jones rounds up “ridiculous ways” of balancing state budgets.
• Paul Krugman worries about “lobbyists, gins, and money.”
• Robert Shiller says too much significance is being placed on a Eurozone break-up.

Labor Market Remains Weak

Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke remains concerned about the health of the labor market.

To sum up:  A wide range of indicators suggests that the job market has been improving, which is a welcome development indeed.  Still, conditions remain far from normal, as shown, for example, by the high level of long-term unemployment and the fact that jobs and hours worked remain well below pre-crisis peaks, even without adjusting for growth in the labor force.  Moreover, we cannot yet be sure that the recent pace of improvement in the labor market will be sustained.  Notably, an examination of recent deviations from Okun’s law suggests that the recent decline in the unemployment rate may reflect, at least in part, a reversal of the unusually large layoffs that occurred during late 2008 and over 2009.  To the extent that this reversal has been completed, further significant improvements in the unemployment rate will likely require a more-rapid expansion of production and demand from consumers and businesses, a process that can be supported by continued accommodative policies.

Slowing Food Stamp Participation

Off the Charts points out how the recovery has helped to slow the growth in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program caseload.