South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Mapping Income Inequality

Policy Shop points out that a new Census Bureau report finds that income inequality is highest in the Deep South.

There are a couple lessons to learn from this report. First, it’s clear from one look at this map that some of the most energetic opponents of the Obama administration — the people regularly dismissing progressive policies as “class warfare” — are the same people representing constituents that live in districts with disproportionately high levels of income inequality. AsDavid Callahan mentioned in a recent post on the Affordable Care Act, the people who benefit most from the Obama administration’s proposals are, overwhelmingly, the same people sending representatives to DC to reverse those policies. As I mentioned above, this won’t surprise the cynical observers of U.S. politics.
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Second, we tend to associate inequality more with big cities — home to both the super wealthy and the homeless — rather than rural regions, but in reality the picture is more complex. While it’s true that inequality is worse in cities rather than out in the country, urban areas in Louisiana, Texas, and Georgia are much worse off than cities on the East coast or Rustbelt (with the exception of New York City, to be fair, which is located in the third most unequal county in the entire U.S.).

NC Job Market Grew In January

CHAPEL HILL (March 13, 2012) – North Carolina’s job market began 2012 by gaining 17,000 more payroll jobs than it lost. Moreover, annual revisions to employment statistics concluded that the state netted more jobs in 2011 than first reported. At the same time, 10.2 percent of the labor force was unemployed in January. These findings come from data released today by the Division of Employment Security.

“January’s job report contained some positive news,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “North Carolina netted jobs, grew its labor force, saw more people become employed, and reduced both the number of unemployed individuals and the statewide unemployment rate. Revisions to 2011 data also showed that the labor market performed better than first estimated.”

In January, North Carolina employers added 17,000 more payroll jobs than they cut. Net gains occurred primarily in the private sector (+15,400), though the public sector also added some jobs (+1,600, due mainly to hiring by local governments). Within the private sector, trade, transportation, and utilities added the most jobs in absolute terms (+6,200, driven almost entirely by gains in the retail trade subsector). Professional and business services added 3,900 positions with the gains split nearly evenly between the professional, scientific, and technical and administrative and waste management subsectors. The manufacturing sector netted 3,100 positions due chiefly to hiring in the nondurable goods subsector. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality services shed the most positions (-1,200, attributable mainly to a decline in the arts, entertainment, and recreation subsector), followed by construction (-1,000).

A positive annual revision to the 2011 employment data found that the state gained 13,700 more jobs over the course of the year than previously reported (+33,300 versus +19,600). When combined with other data revisions to earlier years, North Carolina now has lost, on net, 227,500 positions, or 5.5 percent of its payroll base, since December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state has netted an average of 4,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 98,800 positions (+2.6 percent).

“While the jobs situation in North Carolina appears to be somewhat more positive than previously thought, the state’s labor market remains battered and bruised,” noted Quinterno. “Compared to December 2007, North Carolina has fewer payroll jobs in every major private industry sector except for educational and health services and professional and business services. At current rates of growth, recovery remains a distant destination.”

The household data for January also point to a weak labor market. On the positive side of the ledger, North Carolina experienced an increase in the size of the labor force in January (+6,245, +0.1 percent, as well as a rise in the number of employed North Carolinians (+14,213, +0.3 percent). The number of unemployed persons fell (-7,968, -1.6 percent), as did the unemployment rate. (Note that changes in labor force data for January 2012 may be a function of statistical updates.)

Nevertheless, joblessness remained widespread. There were over twice as many unemployed North Carolinians in January 2012 as there were in December 2007, and the statewide unemployment rate was 5.2 percentage points greater than it was some four years ago. Moreover, the monthly statewide unemployment rate has been at least 10 percent in every month since March 2009.

“New data suggest indicate that North Carolina’s labor market performed somewhat better in 2011 than first thought,” observed Quinterno. “While the job picture appears less bad than previously perceived, that is not the same as saying that the picture looks bright. By any objective measure, North Carolina’s job market remains depressed and continues to make little progress toward undoing the effects of a recession that started four years ago.”

Around The Dial – March 12, 2012

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Policy Shop notes that youth unemployment remains elevated.
• The Center for American Progress point out the lack of paid parental leave.
• Bob Herbert traces “the destruction of black wealth.”
• Bo Cutter foresees “a coming economic growth collapse.”

Free-Trade Blinders

Dani Rodrik describes some of the blinders that limit understanding of the effects of trade policies.

Too many economists are tone-deaf to such distinctions. They are prone to attribute concerns about globalization to crass protectionist motives or ignorance, even when there are genuine ethical issues at stake. By ignoring the fact that international trade sometimes – certainly not always – involves redistributive outcomes that we would consider problematic at home, they fail to engage the public debate properly. They also miss the opportunity to mount a more robust defense of trade when ethical concerns are less warranted.
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While globalization occasionally raises difficult questions about the legitimacy of its redistributive effects, we should not respond automatically by restricting trade. There are many difficult trade-offs to consider, including the consequences for others around the world who may be made significantly poorer than those hurt at home.
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But democracies owe themselves a proper debate, so that they make such choices consciously and deliberately. Fetishizing globalization simply because it expands the economic pie is the surest way to delegitimize it in the long run.

Employment Report In Review

Tim Duy sums up the national employment report for February.

Bottom Line:  Another good report, although still suggestive of the beginning of recovery.  In my mind, true recovery will come when the cyclical declines in labor force participation are further reversed.  At this point, there is no reason for the Fed to pull their foot off the gas.  On net though, the employment report does push back the timing of any additional easing.  The Fed will move to the sidelines while policymakers assess the level of slack in labor markets.  If the cyclical downturn resulted in sustained structural damage, there may be little slack.  But if an influx of returning workers puts a floor under the unemployment rate, the Fed will have more work still to do.