South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Around The Dial – March 2, 2012

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

Around The Dial – March 1, 2012

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Economix worries about the corporate bias toward “short-termism.”
• The Nation notes that the unemployment deal ignores the poorest Americans.

NC Unemployment Claims: Week of 2/11/12

For the benefit week ending on February 11, 2012,  some 11,648 North Carolinians filed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits, and 120,190 individuals applied for state-funded continuing benefits. Compared to the prior week, there were more initial and fewer continuing claims. These figures come from data released by the U.S. Department of Labor.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 12,231 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 122,768 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 13,621,  and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 135,859.

In recent weeks covered employment has increased and now slightly exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.74 million versus 3.71 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were four years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

Service Activity In The South Atlantic: Feb. 2012

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s latest survey of service-sector activity in the South Atlantic (District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia):

Activity in the service sector improved in February, notably with respect to employment, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Retail sales advanced at a slower pace, although shopper traffic increased. Big-ticket sales remained weak, but pulled back from last month’s sharp drop. Retail inventory accumulation nearly matched January’s rise. Revenues slowed abruptly at non-retail services firms. Retailers expected weak demand for their goods during the next six months. In contrast, non-retail services providers anticipated stronger demand for their services over that period.
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Labor market indicators strengthened across the broad service sector, with a jump in the number of employees and widespread wage increases.
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Price change in the overall service sector sped up slightly, with most of that pick-up in retail. Looking ahead six months, expectations were for continued mild acceleration.

Manufacturing In The South Atlantic: Feb. 2012

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s latest survey of manufacturing activity in the South Atlantic (District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia):

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region advanced for the third straight month, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. Our broadest indicators of overall activity — shipments, new orders and employment — remained in positive territory, and the rate of increase strengthened considerably from our last report. Other indicators were also positive, including backlogs and capacity utilization. Likewise, delivery times and finished goods inventories grew at a moderately quicker rate.
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Looking ahead, assessments of business prospects for the next six months were generally on par with last month’s readings. Contacts at more firms anticipated that shipments, new orders, backlogs, capacity utilization, and capital expenditures would continue to grow at a solid pace in the months ahead.