South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Looking For Signs Of Bifurcation

Rortybomb looks for evidence of bifurcation in the labor market and finds that all unemployed workers have a hard time returning to work, regardless of how long they have been unemployed.

Around The Dial – December 8, 2011

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Economix breaks down student loan data.
• Robert Kuttner argues that “austerity isn’t Europe’s salvation.“
• The Washington Post reports on the economic impact of data centers.
• David Callahan points out that “new jobs aren’t always good jobs.”

NC Unemployment Claims: Week of 11/19/11

For the benefit week ending on November 19, 2011,  some 9,377 North Carolinians filed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits, and 106,527 individuals applied for state-funded continuing benefits. Compared to the prior week, there were fewer initial and more continuing claims. (Note that the filing week was shorter than normal due to the Thanksgiving holiday.) These figures come from data released by the U.S. Department of Labor.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 11,557 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 106,981 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was lower and the number of continuing claims was higher.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 13,581  and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 117,334.

In recent weeks covered employment has increased slightly and has returned to the 3.73 million level recorded a year ago. Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were almost three years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims (as a share of covered employment) in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

Why Not?

Suzanne Mettler asks why tax expenditures are not part of the debate about deficit reduction.

When viewed with even a small dose of historical perspective, the unquestioned immunity of tax expenditures to reductions is incredible given what’s at stake. Moreover, it demonstrates how dramatically our politics have changed in a space of less than two decades. From the Reagan era through Bowles-Simpson, bipartisan commissions charged with finding means of reducing spending have agreed that such policies should be scaled back as a means to increase federal revenues. Fiscal conservatives of yesteryear criticized tax expenditures for interfering with market forces. Far from epitomizing laissez faire economics, such policies actively involve government in altering market forces, subsidizing some industries to the exclusion of others. As a result, they promote the consumption of goods and services in some areas, such as health care and housing, generating artificial increases in prices.

Around The Dial – December 7, 2011

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Random Samplings analyzes use of the national TANF program.
• Kenneth Rogoff worries about the sustainability of modern capitalism.
• Nick Hanauer challenges the current discourse about “job creators.”
• Economix looks at older workers and joblessness.
• TaxVox argues that the payroll tax cut is better than inaction.