Policy Points

03.03.2011 Policy Points Comments Off on NC Unemployment Claims: Week of 2/12

NC Unemployment Claims: Week of 2/12

For the benefit week ending on February 12th, 12,915 North Carolinians filed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits, and 133,284  individuals applied for state-funded continuing benefits. Compared to the prior week, there were fewer initial and continuing claims. These figures come from data released by the U.S. Department of Labor.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of  13,621 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 135,859 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, there were fewer initial and continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 19,282 and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 209,170.

While the number of claims has dropped over the past year so has covered employment. Last week, covered employment totaled 3.7 million, down from 3.9 million a year ago.

The graph (right) shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims (as a share of covered employment) in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

 

03.03.2011 Policy Points Comments Off on Huh?

Huh?

Brad DeLong is confused about the direction of economic policy.

… Today, we face a nominal demand shortfall of 8% relative to the pre-recession trend, no signs of gathering inflation, and unemployment rates in the North Atlantic region that are at least three percentage points higher than any credible estimate of the sustainable rate. And yet, even though politicians who fail to safeguard economic growth and high employment tend to lose the next election, leaders in Europe and the US are clamoring to enact policies that would reduce output and employment in the short run.

Am I missing something here?

I had thought that the fundamental issues in macroeconomics were settled in 1829. Back then, even Jean-Baptiste Say no longer believed in Say’s Law of business-cycle frequencies. He knew very well that a financial panic and excessive demand for financial assets could produce deficient demand for currently-produced commodities and for labor, and that while such a short-run breakdown of Say’s Law might be temporary, it was nonetheless highly destructive.

 

02.03.2011 Policy Points Comments Off on Around The Dial – March 2

Around The Dial – March 2

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

02.03.2011 Policy Points Comments Off on So Long, Golden Years?

So Long, Golden Years?

Writing in The American Prospect, Theresa Ghilarducci  argues that the idea of a middle-class retirement is slipping away from most working Americans.

Even without further cuts, the normal Social Security retirement age is set to increase to 67 in 2022. Compared to where it was before the last major changes enacted in 1983, Social Security has already been cut close to 20 percent, in terms of how much wage income it typically replaces.

The private pension part of our system is in even worse shape. Over half of workers have no pension plan. Of those who do, only 20 percent have traditional plans that provide a guaranteed benefit, while the other 80 percent have 401(k)-type plans that shift all the risks to the retiree. In 2009, the account balance for the average-income household with a 401(k) plan was only about $67,000. Even the oldest workers in the highest-earning households, of $100,000 annual income and over, have on average only about $173,000, which yields a lifetime monthly income of just $500.

According to the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, less than half of American workers will have enough income to adequately maintain living standards into retirement. The risk of insufficient income in old age is higher for workers today than it was for their parents and grandparents.

02.03.2011 Policy Points Comments Off on Service Activity In The South Atlantic: Feb.

Service Activity In The South Atlantic: Feb.

From the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s latest survey of service-sector activity in the South Atlantic (District of Columbia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia):

Activity in the broad service sector continued to grow in February, despite weaker conditions at retail establishments, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Retail sales slumped in February, as shopper traffic declined and big-ticket sales fell; inventories rose. Revenues grew at non-retail services firms, although slightly less rapidly than a month earlier. Looking ahead six months, survey respondents expected stronger consumer demand, although optimism among services providers was partly offset by a bleaker outlook from retailers, compared to a month ago.

Turning to service sector labor, employment rose overall in February, with both retail and non-retail sectors adding employees. Widespread growth in average retail wages continued, while average wages at services firms flattened.

Price growth edged up slightly this month, and survey participants anticipated the pace of price growth would quicken in the six months ahead