Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:
Free Exchange offers an initial overview of the advance GDP report for the 4th Quarter of 2010.
… Well, given the size of the output gap—for now, about $800 billion separates actual and potential real output—the economy should be growing faster. For 2010 as a whole, output expanded by 2.9%. That’s the fastest growth since 2005, but at this point in the early 1990s business cycle annual growth was up (despite a smaller output gap) at a 3.4% pace, and at this point in the early 1980s cycle annual growth was roaring ahead at 4.5%. Current growth is consistent with a painfully slow reduction in the unemployment rate. Forecasters anticipate a further acceleration in 2011, perhaps to an annual rate near 4%. The jobless can only hope such predictions come true.
A brief from the Economic Policy Institute compared the share of the Americans living in poverty in 2009 to what the share would be if the benefits provided by various programs were included. As the graph below shows, Social Security is the nation’s most important anti-poverty program.
Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:
For the benefit week ending on January 8th, 18,791 North Carolinians filed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits, and 140,849 individuals applied for state-funded continuing benefits. Compared to the prior week, there were fewer initial and continuing claims. These figures come from data released by the U.S. Department of Labor.
Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 22,567 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 142,397 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, there were more initial and continuing claims.
One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 29,198 and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 213,188.
While the number of claims has dropped over the past year so has covered employment. Last week, covered employment totaled 3.7 million, down from 3.9 million a year ago.
The graph (right) shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims (as a share of covered employment) in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.
Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions. Also, the four-week average of new claims generally have been on the rise since the end of September.
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