South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Unintended Educational Consequences

Tapped asks if attempts to expand access to higher education and increase the share of Americans with postsecondary credentials  makes  it harder for low-income students to enter the middle class.

… By expanding the types of careers for which college is considered necessary, are we actually creating barriers that previously didn’t exist? That’s a bigger problem if students are going to college only to find themselves with a job they could have gotten without a college degree a few years ago and without, as this research suggests, the critical thinking skills that allow them to enter the educated class. There’s nothing wrong with making higher education open to everyone, but perhaps it’s time to ask what we want colleges to do. If students are meant to get high-level skills that make them adaptable in an ever-shifting job market, then we need to do that better. If college is career-oriented, then we really need to reconsider which kinds of jobs actually require classroom training. If students are going off to college and coming out no more educated in the long run, we’re actually doing them a disservice.

Declining Union Membership

The Center on Economic and Policy Research analyzes the latest national union membership data and looks at the decline that occurred in 2010.

After a few years of small gains, union membership tumbled in 2010. Over 2009 and 2010, the Great Recession helped to reduce union rolls by more than 1.3 million members. In the absence of federal support for state and local governments, public sector cutbacks will continue to depress the overall union membership rate. Absent changes to labor law, offsetting increases in the private sector are unlikely.

In related news, The News & Observer reported that North Carolina continued to have the nation’s lowest rate of unionization. Lat year, just 3.2 percent of Tar Heel workers belonged to a union.

Around The Dial – Jan. 24

Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:

• Calculated Risk previews this week’s FOMC meeting.
• Economix looks at the debate between cash and in-kind social benefits.
• Economist’s View asks if what is good for business is good for America.
• Free Exchange needs to get out more.
• Robert Reich defines competitiveness.

NC Job Market Ends 2010 With A Whimper

CHAPEL HILL (January 24, 2011) – North Carolina ended 2010 essentially with no more payroll jobs than it had at the beginning of the year. According to data released today by the Employment Security Commission, North Carolina gained 2,300 payroll positions in December, but that gain did little to close the state’s large jobs gap. Over the course of 2010, net payroll employment grew by just 0.3 percent.

“2010 delivered very little in the way of job growth for North Carolina,” says John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “In several respects, labor market conditions actually worsened during the year.”

Last month, North Carolina employers added 2,300 more payroll positions than they cut. Net gains occurred in both the private (+1,700) and public (+600) sectors. Among private industries, professional and business services netted the most positions (+3,600), followed by manufacturing (+1,400) and trade, transportation and utilities (+1,300). The gains were offset by declines in construction (-3,900) and leisure and hospitality services (-2,300).

Additionally, a revision to the November data decreased the net job loss first reported for that month. Instead of losing 12,500 positions, North Carolina actually shed 5,800 positions. With that revision, North Carolina has lost, on net, 272,800 positions – 6.5 percent of its payroll employment base – since December 2007.

“While positive, the job gains posted in December and the upward revision to the November report have not altered the fundamental jobs picture in North Carolina,” notes Quinterno. “Meaningful job growth simply is not occurring, and in many ways, conditions actually deteriorated during the second half of the year.”

Since bottoming out in September 2009, North Carolina’s labor market has recorded little growth. Total payroll employment is just 0.6 percent greater than it was at the recession’s lowest point.

Between December 2009 and December 2010, North Carolina gained 10,400 jobs (0.3 percent). Almost all of the growth (10,000 positions) occurred in the private sector. In terms of individual industries, professional and business services grew the most in absolute and relative terms (+20,800, +4.5 percent). Construction shed the most jobs in absolute and relative terms (-11,500, -6.5 percent). In the public sector, net job loss resulted entirely from reductions among local governments.

The household data for December, meanwhile, were mixed. Last month, the labor force grew by 0.1 percent as 2,264 more individuals found work or actively looked for work. On the other hand, the total number of employed individuals fell, and the number of unemployed individuals rose to 439,167. These dynamics pushed the statewide unemployment rate to 9.8 percent. Furthermore, a variety of other data points suggest that joblessness and the attendant hardships are much more widespread than reflected in the official unemployment measure.

“Perhaps the most worrisome trend observed in 2010 was the decline in the size of the labor force,” observes Quinterno. “Compared to a year ago, there are 52,626 fewer people working or actively seeking work. The size of the state’s labor force now is at the lowest level recorded since July 2006.”

“The December employment offers no evidence that a recovery in the job market is underway in North Carolina,’ added Quinterno. “2010 was in effect a lost year for North Carolina’s job market and the people who depend on it for their livelihoods.”

When Will Job Growth Happen?

The PBS NewsHour reports on the prospects for the American economy and asks if and when robust job growth will happen.