Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:
For the benefit week ending on October 2nd, 19,687 North Carolinians filed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits, and 120,524 individuals applied for state-funded continuing benefits. Compared to the prior week, there were more initial and continuing claims. These figures come from data released by the U.S. Department of Labor.
Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 13,787 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 117,870 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, there were more initial and continuing claims.
One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 17,040 and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 183,578.
While the number of claims has dropped over the past year, so has covered employment. Last week, covered employment totaled 3.7 million, down from 3.9 million a year ago.
The graph (right) shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims (as a share of covered employment) in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007.
Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this business cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably. Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.
Also, little change has occurred within recent months. Since April 2010, the four-week average of initial claims consistently has ranged between 13,987 and 11,200.
Austan Goolsbee of the Council of Economic Advisers breaks out his white board to explain employment trends over the last three years and the role that that the recovery package has played in slowing those losses.
Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:
Off the Charts says that it is too soon to know if state finances have “turned the corner.”
The combination of sluggish revenue growth, diminishing federal aid, and rising costs means that states will face their biggest fiscal challenges ever next fiscal year, which starts next July in most states. Already, states are projecting $112 billion in shortfalls for fiscal year 2012, as we reported earlier this month, and we expect that figure to grow.
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In short, the worst is far from over. States are going to need to put everything on the table when they write next year’s budgets — and that should probably include changing state tax codes in order to replace some of the recession-induced revenue loss.
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