John Quinterno of South by by North Strategies recently was a guest on the syndicated radio program News & Views. Quinterno discussed the current condition of the North Carolina labor market, the prospects for a recovery, and the consequences of long-term unemployment.
Click here to listen to the full interview.
Martin Wolf of The Financial Times is not optimistic about the United States’ ability to address long-term fiscal issues. Writes Wolf:
Finally, with one party indifferent to deficits, provided they are brought about by tax cuts, and the other party relatively fiscally responsible (well, everything is relative, after all), but opposed to spending cuts on core programmes, US fiscal policy is paralysed. I may think the policies of the UK government dangerously austere, but at least it can act.
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This is extraordinarily dangerous. The danger does not arise from the fiscal deficits of today, but the attitudes to fiscal policy, over the long run, of one of the two main parties. Those radical conservatives (a small minority, I hope) who want to destroy the credit of the US federal government may succeed. If so, that would be the end of the US era of global dominance. The destruction of fiscal credibility could be the outcome of the policies of the party that considers itself the most patriotic.
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In sum, a great deal of trouble lies ahead, for the US and the world.
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Where am I wrong, if at all?
Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:
South by North Strategies’ analysis of the June local employment report for North Carolina was featured in several media stories.
Fed Watch is concerned about the decline in the United States’ productive capacity.
In short, I continue to worry that policymakers are ignoring the possibility that increasing reliance on external production to satisfy US demand has contributed significantly to the jobless recoveries we have seen this decade. Something is very different this decade. I think it is a mistake to write off this decade’s shift in manufacturing as simply a repeat of the agricultural experience. At least agricultural output continued to rise as its relative employment importance fell. The capacity numbers are telling us the same can not be said of manufacturing any longer. And in the past, the relative decline in manfacturing jobs was matched by a more than corresponding increase in service sector jobs. No longer the case; job growth is flat for a decade. If we intend to ignore this issue, the supposed reality of tradable services had better get a lot more traction very quickly. Otherwise, we are further solidifying a permanent underclass of citizens who require the constant support of fiscal authorities.
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