Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:
A number of media outlets recently have featured the research and perspective of South by North Strategies, Ltd.
Fed Watch looks at recent economic indicators and finds that neither optimists nor pessimists are completely right.
In short, yes, given that the US economy has been growing now for three quarters, and is most likely to grow for the next three quarters, room for optimism is surely growing as well, something the pessimists need to accept, lest they fall into the trap of incoherent mumbling for the five years until the next recession provides them with an “I told you so” opportunity.
—
Where the pessimists have room to complain, as I am wont to do, is on the employment issue.Even the most more optimistic forecast of former IMF Chief Economist Michael Mussa is not sufficient to drive rapid improvement in the labor market.Again, think of a real V-shaped recovery like the mid-80’s. Hence the widespread disappointment with the March labor report. On the surface, the numbers were not terrible. Subtract out, however, the private and Census temporary workers, adjust for the fact that this supposedly represented a “bounce” from the weather impacted February report, and then recognize that the US economy has been growing for three quarters.Then you start to think that this is a better report, but not good enough to alleviate the pain in the labor market anytime soon. But it is not bad enough that anyone is eager to commit to additional stimulus, almost guaranteeing a continuation of the status quo, a job market that will not recoup lost jobs for years, leaving perhaps an indelible mark on a generation of workers.
Economic policy reports, blog postings, and media stories of interest:
The current issue of The Carrboro (NC) Citizen contains a profile of John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd. The piece discusses Qunterno’s background, the firm’s work, and economic conditions in the Research Triangle. Below is an excerpt from the article:
So what does Quinterno think about the unemployment situation in Orange County? “Our unemployment rate is probably at one of the highest levels that’s been recorded in the last 25 to 30 years, and it’s about 6 percent, maybe a little bit under. That’s a level most places would aspire to even under the best of circumstances. I’m not trying to minimize the fact that it’s severe here, by our relative standards. But the fact is that even though it’s bad here now by historical standards, it’s still pretty good in the grand scheme of things.”
—
But he warns that if state governments don’t get federal aid in balancing their budgets this year, there could be more painful job losses in the state workforce, and that could have local effects.
Email Sign-Up | 
RSS Feed
