South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Locking In 82 Percent

Off the Charts explains how the recent deal related to the so-called “fiscal cliff” locks in 82 percent of the Bush-era tax cuts.

Employment In December 2012

The PBS News Hour reports on the December 2012 employment report, which was released last Friday.

Watch Last Jobs Report Shows Slow Growth and Economic Concerns on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.

National Job Market Grew Again In December

CHAPEL HILL (January 4, 2013) – The national labor market added 155,000 more jobs than it lost in December. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, held steady at 7.8 percent, which was the lowest rate (seasonally adjusted) recorded since January 2009, when the rate also was 7.8 percent. Despite the net increase in payroll jobs in December, the pace of job growth remained subdued, and the unemployment rate was still abnormally high.

“December was the 27th-straight month of job growth recorded in the United States,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Over the past three months, the national economy has netted an average of 151,000 jobs, a pace that, while positive, is insufficient to push unemployment down to pre-recessionary levels anytime soon. Some 3.5 years into an economic recovery, the national unemployment rate remains 2.8 percentage points above the December 2007 level of 5 percent.”

In December, the nation’s employers added 155,000 more payroll positions than they cut. Gains occurred entirely in the private sector (+168,000), while government employers eliminated 13,000 more positions than they added, due chiefly to reductions by local governments. Furthermore, the payroll employment numbers for October and November underwent revisions; with the updates, the economy gained 298,000 jobs over those two months, not the 284,000 positions previously reported.

Within the private sector, payroll levels rose the most in the education and health services sector (+65,000, with 68.5 percent of the gain attributable to the health care subsector), followed by leisure and hospitality services (+31,000, due almost entirely to gains in the accommodation and food service subsector), construction (+30,000), and manufacturing (+25,000). The trade, transportation, and utilities sector, meanwhile, shed 11,000 positions, followed by the information sector (-9,000).

“The American economy managed to add 1.8 million more positions that it lost during the course of 2012,” noted Quinterno. “The current average monthly rate of job growth recorded in 2012—some 153,000 positions per month—nevertheless is insufficient to fill the sizable jobs gap caused by the most recent recession.”

Slack labor market conditions were evident in the December household survey. Last month, 12.2 million Americans (7.8 percent of the labor force) were jobless and seeking work. That unemployment rate (the same as in November) was the lowest one posted since January 2009, when 7.8 percent of the labor force also was unemployed. In December, the size of the labor force grew by 192,000 persons, and the share of the population participating in the labor force held steady at 63.6 percent, a rate below the one recorded in December 2011. The share of the adult population with a job also dipped in December to 58.6 percent, a rate unchanged from a year earlier. On a positive note, compared to a year ago, more Americans were working in December, and fewer persons were unemployed.

Last month, the unemployment rate was higher among adult female workers than male ones (7.3 percent versus 7.2 percent). Unemployment rates were higher among Black (14 percent) and Hispanic workers (9.6 percent) than among White ones (6.9 percent). The unemployment rate among teenagers was 23.5 percent. Moreover, 7 percent of all veterans were unemployed; the rate among recent veterans (served after September 2001) was 10.8 percent. At the same time, 11.7 percent of Americans with disabilities were jobless and seeking work (not seasonally adjusted).

Jobs remained scarce in December. Last month, the underemployment rate equaled 14.4 percent. Among unemployed workers, 39.1 percent had been jobless for at least six months with the average spell of unemployment lasting for 38.1 weeks. The leading cause of unemployment remained a job loss or the completion of a temporary job, which was the reason cited by 52.2 percent of unemployed persons in December. Another 29.2 percent of unemployed persons were reentrants to the labor market, while 10.5 percent were new entrants. Voluntary job leavers accounted for the remaining 8 percent of the total.

“Despite the job growth experienced in December, the American labor market remains mired in the doldrums,” observed Quinterno. “The rate of job growth is subpar relative to the problems facing the national labor market, and the labor market is not on pace to generate enough jobs for all the Americans who need and want work anytime soon.”

NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 12/15/12

For the benefit week ending on December 15, 2012, some 13,067 North Carolinians filed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits and 102,122 individuals applied for state-funded continuing benefits. Compared to the prior week, there were more initial and fewer continuing claims. These figures come from data released by the US Department of Labor.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 15,131 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 105,223 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, as was the average number of continuing claims.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 15,954, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 118,310.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were almost five years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.

Local Employment Rates Down Over The Year

CHAPEL HILL, NC (January 3, 2013) – Between November 2011 and November 2012, unemployment rates fell in 95 of North Carolina’s 100 countries and in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Over that period, the size of the labor force grew in 76 counties and in 14 metro areas. These findings come from new estimates prepared by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Compared to a year ago, local unemployment rates in November were lower across almost all of North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Although the declines in local unemployment rates are positive developments, the drops do not alter the fact that unemployment rates remain abnormally high. In November 2012, 43 counties and two metro areas posted unemployment rates of at least 10 percent. In November 2008, in contrast, just 15 counties and one metro area logged unemployment rates of 10 percent or greater.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 4.3 percent fewer jobs (-181,000) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb to 9 percent from 4.7 percent. In November, the state added 30,600 more jobs than it lost (+0.8 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 4,400 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 145,300 positions (+3.8 percent).

Between October 2012 and November 2012, local unemployment rose in 81 counties, fell in 13 counties, and held steady in six counties. Individual county rates ranged from 5.7 percent in Orange County to 16.3 percent in Graham County. Overall, 43 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 57 counties posted rates between 5 and 10 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to struggle relative to metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In November, 10 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 8.5 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force now has 4.2 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 81.9 percent greater. On a positive note, the size of the non-metro labor force increased over the year, and over the same period, the number of employed persons rose; the number of unemployed persons dropped; and the unemployment rate fell by 1.3 percentage points.”

Over the month, unemployment rates rose in 11 metro areas, declined in one metro area, and held steady in two metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (11.7 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (10.2 percent) and Fayetteville (9.5 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest unemployment rate (6.9 percent), followed by Asheville (7.1 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (7.2 percent).

Compared to November 2011, unemployment rates in November 2012 were lower in in 95 counties and in all 14 metro areas. Over the year, labor force sizes increased in 76 counties and in all 14 metros. Among metros, Jacksonville’s labor force expanded at the fastest rate (+4.1 percent), followed by that of Goldsboro (+3.4 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 71.6 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.2 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, improvements in overall labor market conditions will hinge on growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros remains subdued. Collectively, employment in those three metro regions has risen by 3.3 percent since December 2007, and the combined November unemployment rate in the three regions equaled 8.3. That was down from the 9.3 percent rate recorded one year ago but well above the 6.8 percent rate recorded in November 2008. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest November unemployment rate (7.3 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (9 percent), and Charlotte (9.1 percent).

“Labor market conditions across much of North Carolina have improved over the past year, but even with those improvements, conditions are worse than they were in November 2008,” said Quinterno. “Unemployment rates remain elevated across the state, and 1.2 times as many North Carolinians are jobless and seeking work than was the case four years ago.”