South By North Strategies, Ltd.

Editor’s Note

Policy Points is taking a few days off to enjoy the Veterans Day holiday. Regular posting will resume on Tuesday, November 13, 2012. Thanks for your interest in the blog.

South by North Strategies To Author Book On Regional Analysis

CHAPEL HILL, NC (November 9, 2012) – South by North Strategies, Ltd. announced today that it has entered into a publishing agreement with M.E. Sharpe, Inc. to author a book about regional economic and social analysis. The book has the working title Running the Numbers: A Practical Guide to Regional Economic and Social Analysis and is scheduled for release in late 2013.

“This book project is a natural outgrowth of South by North Strategies’ consulting work and research in the areas of economic and social policy,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd. and the author of the book. “The goal of the book is demystify regional economic and social data and analysis through clear, concise explanations of fundamental concepts, sources, and methods and through the use of practical examples based on actual American metropolitan regions.”

“Running the Numbers ideally will benefit any curious reader, and the hope is to craft a practical guide that will assist regional elected officials, public administrators, business executives, and journalists, as well as the staff members and senior managers of nongovernmental and philanthropic organizations,” added Quinterno. “The book also will be of great value to students in a broad range of academic disciplines related to public affairs.”

The book’s publisher will be M.E. Sharpe, Inc., an award-winning independent publisher of books and journals in the social sciences and humanities, including titles in economics, business, political science, management, public administration, and history. The firm is located in Armonk, NY. Harry Briggs, executive editor, acquired the manuscript for M.E. Sharpe.

Local Employment Conditions Improved Over The Year

CHAPEL HILL, NC (November 2, 2012) – Between September 2011 and September 2012, unemployment rates fell in every one of North Carolina’s 100 countries and in all 14 of the state’s metropolitan areas. Over the same period, labor force sizes grew in 58 counties and in 11 metro areas. These findings come from new estimates prepared by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Local unemployment rates fell across North Carolina over the year,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Local labor market conditions nevertheless remained far from healthy in September, with 38 counties and two metros posting unemployment rates of at least 10 percent.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the economy fell into recession, North Carolina has 5.4 percent fewer jobs (-223,700) and has seen its unadjusted unemployment rate climb from 4.7 percent to 8.9 percent. In September, the state gained 100 more payroll jobs than it lost (+/- 0.0 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 3,310 jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 102,600 positions (+2.7 percent).

Between August 2012 and September 2012, the local unemployment rate fell in 97 counties, rose in one county, and was unchanged in two counties. Individual county rates ranged from 5.1 percent in Currituck County to 16.1 percent in Scotland County. Overall, 38 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 62 counties posted rates between 5 and 10 percent.

“Non-metropolitan labor markets continue to struggle relative to metropolitan ones,” noted Quinterno. “In September, 9.9 percent of the non-metro labor force was unemployed, compared to 8.5 percent of the metro labor force. Compared to December 2007, the non-metro labor force is now 0.1 percent smaller in size, and 4.7 percent fewer non-metro residents are employed. Meanwhile, the number of unemployed rural persons has grown by 79 percent and totals 132,912. On a positive note, the size of the non-metro labor force essentially held steady over the year, while the number of employed persons rose, and the number of unemployed persons declined.”

Over the month, unemployment rates fell in all 14 metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (12 percent), followed by Hickory-Morganton-Lenoir (10.3 percent). Durham-Chapel Hill had the lowest unemployment rate (6.9 percent), followed by Asheville (7.1 percent) and Raleigh-Cary (7.2 percent).

Compared to September 2011, unemployment rates were lower in September 2012 in all 100 counties and in all 14 metros. Over the year, labor force sizes contracted or held steady in 42 counties and in three metros. Among metros, Wilmington’s labor force contracted at the fastest rate (-2.2 percent), followed by Winston-Salem (-0.7 percent). With those changes, metro areas now are home to 71.6 percent of the state’s labor force, with 50.2 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

In the long term, any meaningful recovery will hinge on economic and employment growth in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Yet growth in these metros remains weak. Collectively, employment in these three metro regions has risen by 2.5 percent since December 2007, and the combined September unemployment rate in the three regions equaled 8.3, down from the 9.7 percent rate recorded one year ago. Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest unemployment rate (7.3 percent), followed by the Piedmont Triad (9.1 percent), and Charlotte (9.2 percent).

“Despite the broad decline in unemployment rates over the past year, labor market conditions across North Carolina remain far from normal,” said Quinterno. “Unemployment rates remain elevated across the state, and some 421,000 North Carolinians are jobless and seeking work, even though the odds of finding a job remain stacked against them.”

Reminder: Where Do The Job Numbers Come From?

Tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m., the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is scheduled to release the national employment report for the month of October. Due to the stakes associated with the upcoming presidential election, the monthly employment have become enmeshed in political controversies, with some critics alleging that the BLS somehow is manipulating the data for partisan purposes.

To shed light on the rather baseless claims of political interference,  South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy, last month released a special web-only essay that attempted to shed light on the debate by providing an overview of from where the national employment figures come. The essay profiled the work of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, introduced the agency’s monthly surveys of employers and households, noted some of the factors to bear in mind when interpreting the data, and corrected some common misconceptions pertaining to unemployment as it is defined and measured for statistical purposes.

Given that some of the same claims of political manipulation are likely to circulate following the release of the numbers for October, interested parties may find South by North Strategies’ essay helpful. Click here to read the full essay.

NC Unemployment Claims: Week Of 10/13/12

For the benefit week ending on October 13, 2012, some 14,666 North Carolinians filed initial claims for state unemployment insurance benefits and 98,426 individuals applied for state-funded continuing benefits. Compared to the prior week, there were more initial and more continuing claims. These figures come from data released by the US Department of Labor.

Averaging new and continuing claims over a four-week period — a process that helps adjust for seasonal fluctuations and better illustrates trends — shows that an average of 12,169 initial claims were filed over the previous four weeks, along with an average of 96,185 continuing claims. Compared to the previous four-week period, the average number of initial claims was higher, as was the average number of continuing claims was lower.

One year ago, the four-week average for initial claims stood at 12,985, and the four-week average of continuing claims equaled 104,522.

In recent months covered employment has increased and now exceeds the level recorded a year ago (3.8 million versus 3.7 million). Nevertheless, there are still fewer covered workers than there were in January 2008, which means that payrolls are smaller today than they were more than 4.5 years ago.

The graph shows the changes in unemployment insurance claims measured as a share of covered employment in North Carolina since the recession’s start in December 2007. 

Both new and continuing claims appear to have peaked for this cycle, and the four-week averages of new and continuing claims have fallen considerably.  Yet continuing claims remain at an elevated level, which suggests that unemployed individuals are finding it difficult to find new positions.