South By North Strategies, Ltd.

The Landscape Of Economic Opportunity

In October 2015, John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd. presented on the changes in economic opportunity and hardship that have occurred in North Carolina since 2007. The event was part of a conference organized by the Office of Economic Opportunity within the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services.

The presentation (below) explored the relationship between the state’s underperforming labor market, declining household living standards, and changing economic and social policy realities.

Unemployment Rates Down Year-Over-Year

CHAPEL HILL, NC (September 30, 2015)–From August 2014 to August 2015, unemployment rates fell in 91 of North Carolina’s 100 counties and in 14 of the state’s 15 metropolitan areas. Over the same period, the size of the local labor force shrank in 56 counties and in 4 metro areas.

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“In many North Carolina communities, labor market conditions have been improving slowly on a year-over-year basis,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Yet the state’s ongoing, sluggish recovery increasingly is one that is concentrated in a few major metropolitan areas.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 2.2 percent more payroll jobs (+90,600). In August 2015, the state gained 700 more jobs than it lost (+/- 0.0 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 417,000 payroll jobs (+10.9 percent).

Between July and August of 2015, local unemployment rates fell in 86 of the state’s 100 counties, rose in 4 counties, and held constant in 10 counties. Individual county rates ranged from 4.6 percent in Buncombe County to 11.4 percent in Scotland County. Overall, 4 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 63 counties posted rates between 6 and 9.9 percent; 33 counties had unemployment rates between 4.6 and 5.9 percent.

“The combined August unemployment rate in North Carolina’s non-metropolitan counties was 5.1 percent,” noted Quinterno. “These 54 non-metropolitan counties are home to 21.9 percent of the state’s labor force. Compared to December 2007, non-metro areas have 4.1 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 30.5 percent greater. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 4.1 percent. In fact, non-metropolitan North Carolina has been responsible for the entire decline in the state’s labor force that has occurred since late 2007.”

Earlier in 2015, the Labor and Economic Analysis Division implemented new definitions of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties consistent with federal changes made based on the 2010 Census. With those updates, North Carolina now has 46 metropolitan counties and 54 non-metropolitan ones. Additionally, the state now has 15 metropolitan statistical areas, up from 14; the addition is the three-county New Bern metro area.

Between July and August, unemployment rates fell in 14 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (8.8 percent), followed by Fayetteville (8 percent) and Greenville (6.8 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (4.8 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (5.2 percent), Durham-Chapel Hill (5.4 percent), and Burlington (5.7 percent).

Compared to August 2014, unemployment rates in August 2015 were lower in 91 counties and in 14 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 56 counties and in 4 metros. The statewide labor force (unadjusted), meanwhile, was 2.1 percent larger (+98,296 individuals) in August 2015 than it was in August 2014.

All of the year-over-year growth in the size of the state’s labor force occurred in the three largest metro areas, which collectively added 112,419 persons (+4.4 percent). Among individual metros, Burlington’s labor force grew at the fastest rate (+8.9 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Charlotte (+7.1 percent) and Raleigh (+4.4 percent).

Decreases in labor force sizes occurred in Fayetteville (-9.7 percent), Jacksonville (-4.1 percent), and Goldsboro (-1.1 percent), while the size of Greenville’s labor force was basically unchanged.

With those changes, metro areas now are home to 78.1 percent of the state’s labor force, with 56.3 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

Improvements in North Carolina’s overall labor market are being driven by developments in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Over the year, unemployment rates fell in 4 of the 5 metro areas that constitute those regions and held steady in one. Collectively, employment in the 3 broad regions has risen by 9.8 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in August totaled 5.6 percent, as compared to 4.5 percent in December 2007. These regions also were responsible for virtually all of the employment growth that occurred over the year.

Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest August unemployment rate (5.5 percent), followed by Charlotte (5.8 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (6 percent).

In August, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 16,299 down from the 20,279 initial claims filed a year earlier (-19.6 percent). Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,047), followed by Wake (1,602), Guilford (1,037), Cumberland (642), and Forsyth (606) counties.

In August 2015, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $25.3 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $33.1 million received in August 2014. This decline (-23.6 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that have restricted eligibility for unemployment insurance compensation.

“Labor market conditions in many North Carolina communities, especially the largest metropolitan ones, steadily have been improving on a year-over-year basis,” said Quinterno. “At the same time, the overall pace of recovery remains subdued, with conditions in non-metropolitan and small metropolitan places either worsening or stagnating.”

N. Carolina’s Labor Market Unchanged In Aug.

CHAPEL HILL, NC (September 18, 2015) – In August, employers in North Carolina added just 700 more jobs than they cut, with all of the gain originating in in the private sector. Over the year, North Carolina gained 107,200 more jobs than it lost, due entirely to gains in the private sector. The statewide unemployment rate of 5.9 percent in August was unchanged from the prior month, and it was just 0.1 percentage points lower than it had been a year earlier.

These findings come from new data released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the NC Department of Commerce.

“Through the first eight months of 2015, North Carolina has gained 55,500 more payroll jobs than it has lost,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “For comparison, the corresponding figure in 2014 was a gain of 58,500 jobs. Even with the gains logged recently, North Carolina has just 90,600 more jobs than it did at the end of 2007.”

Between July 2015 and August 2015, North Carolina employers added 700 more jobs than they cut (+/-0.0 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 4,300 positions (+0.1 percent), but public-sector payrolls shed, on net, 3,600 jobs (-0.5 percent), due to cuts by local governments. Within private industry, the construction sector added the most payroll jobs (+2,700, +1.4 percent), followed by the leisure and hospitality services sector (+2,200, +0.5 percent, with 68.2 percent of the gain occurring in the accommodation and food services subsector). The education and health services sector, meanwhile, lost the most jobs, on net (-2,900, -0.5 percent).

A revision to the July payroll data found that the state gained fewer jobs than first reported (+19,500 versus an original estimate of +20,600 jobs). With that revision, North Carolina now has, on net, 90,600 more payroll positions (+2.2 percent) than it did in December 2007. Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted an average of 6,300 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 417,400 positions (+10.9 percent).

Over the year, North Carolina employers added 107,200 more jobs than they cut (+2.6 percent). Private-sector payrolls gained, on net, 112,000 positions (+3.3 percent), while public-sector payrolls lost, on net, 4,800 jobs (-0.7 percent). Within private industry, every major industrial sector netted payroll jobs, with the professional and business services sector gaining the most positions (+22,100 or +3.8 percent, with 60.2 percent of the gain occurring in the administrative and waste management services subsector).

“The steady payroll growth experienced recently in North Carolina has not closed the state’s job gap—a gap that may be as high as 417,000 jobs,” noted Quinterno. “North Carolina indeed has slightly more jobs than it did when the recession started, but the state’s labor market remains far short of where it needs to be.”

According to the monthly household data, the statewide unemployment rate held steady at 5.9 percent in August. Between July and August, the number of unemployed North Carolinians increased by 2,040 persons (+0.7 percent), while the number of employed persons fell by 8,844 (-0.2 percent). Over that same period, the size of the statewide labor force decreased (-6,804 persons, -0.1 percent).

Year over year, the statewide unemployment rate fell by 0.1 percentage points, dropping to 5.9 percent from 6 percent, with the number of unemployed North Carolinians rising by 5,607 persons (+2 percent). During that same period, the number of employed persons rose by 121,361 individuals (+2.8 percent), while the size of the labor force increased by 126,968 persons (+2.7 percent).

Other improvements recorded over the course of the year include a rise in the share of working-age North Carolinians participating in the labor market (to 61 percent from 60.1 percent) and in the share of working-age North Carolinians who are employed (to 57.4 percent from 56.5 percent). Although both of these measures have increased recently, they remain not too far above the lowest monthly rates recorded at any point since January 1976.

Between August 2014 and August 2015, the number of claimants of regular state-funded insurance fell by 27.1 percent, dropping to 28,781 from 39,466. Also in August 2015, the state paid a (nominal) total of $25.3 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, an amount 23.4 percent lower than the (nominal) total of $33.1 million paid in August 2014.

“North Carolina’s labor market has improved steadily but slowly over the past year,” said Quinterno. “North Carolina’s economy continues to add enough jobs to keep pace with the growth in the size of the labor force but not enough to eliminate the large job gap caused by the last recession—a recession that began over 7.5 years ago.”

The Changing Demographics of Chapel Hill

In July 2015, John Quinterno of South by North Strategies, Ltd. gave a presentation on the demographic changes that have occurred in the Town of Chapel Hill, North Carolina, since 1990. The presentation was organized by the Chapel Hill Alliance for a Livable Town.

The presentation (embedded below) explored the considerable amount of population growth and housing construction that has occurred in the town since 1990 and identified certain pressing social issues. The presentation also became the basis for an op-ed column authored by Quinterno for The Chapel Hill News.

Local Unemployment Rates Fell Year-Over-Year

CHAPEL HILL, NC (September 1, 2015) — Between July 2014 and July 2015, unemployment rates fell in 90 of North Carolina’s 100 counties and in 13 of the state’s 15 metropolitan areas. Over the same period, the size of the local labor force shrank in 52 counties and in 3 metro areas.

These findings come from new estimates released today by the Labor and Economic Analysis Division of the North Carolina Department of Commerce.

“Over the past year, local labor market conditions improved across much of North Carolina,” said John Quinterno, a principal with South by North Strategies, Ltd., a research firm specializing in economic and social policy. “Yet the state’s ongoing, sluggish recovery is very much a metropolitan one that increasingly is bypassing non-metropolitan communities.”

Compared to December 2007, which is when the national economy fell into recession, North Carolina now has 2.2 percent more payroll jobs (+91,000). In July 2015, the state gained 20,600 more jobs than it lost (+0.5 percent). Since bottoming out in February 2010, the state’s labor market has netted some 6,400 payroll jobs per month, resulting in a cumulative gain of 418,000 payroll jobs (+10.9 percent).

Between June and July of 2015, local unemployment rates rose in 79 of the state’s 100 counties, fell in 6 counties, and held constant in 15 counties. Individual county rates in July ranged from 4.8 percent Buncombe County to 11.7 percent in Graham and Scotland counties. Overall, 4 counties posted unemployment rates greater than or equal to 10 percent, and 69 counties posted rates between 6 and 9.9 percent; 27 counties had unemployment rates between 4.8 and 5.9 percent.

“The combined July unemployment rate in North Carolina’s non-metropolitan counties was 5.3 percent,” noted Quinterno. “These 54 non-metropolitan counties are home to 22 percent of the state’s labor force. Compared to December 2007, non-metro areas have 4.4 percent fewer employed persons, while the number of unemployed individuals is 37.9 percent greater. Over that time, the size of the non-metro labor force has fallen by 2.8 percent. In fact, non-metropolitan North Carolina has been responsible for the entire decline in the state’s labor force that has occurred since late 2007.”

Earlier this year, the Labor and Economic Analysis Division implemented new definitions of metropolitan and non-metropolitan counties consistent with federal changes made based on the 2010 Census. With those updates, North Carolina now has 46 metropolitan counties and 54 non-metropolitan ones. Additionally, the state now has 15 metropolitan statistical areas, up from 14; the addition is the three-county New Bern metro area.

Between June and July, unemployment rates rose in all 15 of the state’s metro areas. Rocky Mount had the highest unemployment rate (9.1 percent), followed by Fayetteville (8.2 percent) and Greenville (7 percent). Asheville had the lowest unemployment rate (5.1 percent), followed by Raleigh-Cary (5.3 percent), Durham-Chapel Hill (5.6 percent), and Burlington and Wilmington (both 5.9 percent).

Compared to July 2014, unemployment rates in July 2015 were lower in 90 counties and in 13 metro areas. Over the year, however, labor force sizes decreased in 52 counties and in 3 metros. The statewide labor force (unadjusted), meanwhile, was 2.1 percent larger (+96,974 individuals) in July 2015 than it was in July 2014.

All of the year-over-year growth in the size of the state’s labor force occurred in the three largest metro areas, which collectively added 112,066 persons (+2.9 percent). Among individual metros, Burlington’s labor force grew at the fastest rate (+9 percent) over the course of the year, followed by Charlotte (+6.6 percent) and Raleigh (+4.4 percent).

Decreases in labor force sizes occurred in Fayetteville (-10 percent), Jacksonville (-4 percent), and Goldsboro (-0.7 percent), while the size of the labor force in Greenville was unchanged.

With those changes, metro areas now are home to 78 percent of the state’s labor force, with 56.2 percent of the labor force residing in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte metros.

Improvements in North Carolina’s overall labor market are being driven by developments in the Charlotte, Research Triangle, and Piedmont Triad regions. Over the year, unemployment rates fell in 4 of the 5 metro areas that constitute those regions and held steady in one. Collectively, employment in the 3 broad regions has risen by 10.6 percent since December 2007, and the combined unemployment rate in July totaled 5.8 percent, as compared to 4.5 percent in December 2007. These regions also were responsible for virtually all of the employment growth that occurred over the year.

Of the three broad regions, the Research Triangle had the lowest July unemployment rate (5.6 percent), followed by Charlotte (6 percent) and the Piedmont Triad (6.3 percent).

In July, the number of regular unemployment insurance initial claims filed in North Carolina totaled 18,468 down from the 23,532 initial claims filed a year earlier (-21.5 percent). Mecklenburg County was home to greatest number of regular initial claims (2,316), followed by Wake (1,739), Guilford (1,189), Forsyth (789), and Cumberland (718) counties.

In July 2015, North Carolinians received a (nominal) total of $23.1 million in regular state-funded unemployment insurance compensation, down from the (nominal) $33.7 million received in July 2014. This decline (-31.5 percent) is attributable to a mix of factors, such as drops in the number of insurance claims resulting from economic improvements and legal changes that have restricted eligibility for unemployment insurance compensation.

“Many labor markets across North Carolina, particularly the largest metropolitan ones, have experienced growth over the past year,” said Quinterno. “At the same time, the overall pace of recovery remains subdued, with many non-metropolitan places continuing to lose ground.”